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Well, I can only tell you a true story of a real dive. I was diving at Three Tree with two friends. One was a guy I'd been diving with for several months; he had about 40 dives, maybe 50 at the time. He'd taken some training beyond OW (I think he did NW Grateful Diver's AOW class, but it was a long time ago, and I'm not sure). At any rate, he had been diving regularly in the Sound and had always been a very solid buddy.
The three of us were down about 70 feet when he began to seem a little erratic -- he was fiddling with his mask, and not kicking steadily. We gave him the "okay" signal, and he returned it. About 60 seconds later, he turned 90 degrees and took off at high speed. The other two of us tried to chase him, but neither of us could come anywhere near keeping up -- this was a big, strong man, swimming as hard as he could.
My remaining buddy and I looked at each other and shrugged, and decided to execute the lost buddy protocol, so we made a steady but controlled ascent to the surface. When we got there, we found our third teammate just getting out of the water, quite a long way from where we were. We weren't thrilled with the surface swim back to the entry!
It turned out that our buddy's mask had flooded, and he was unable to clear it on the first attempt. The influx of cold water panicked him, and all he could think was that he needed to get shallower. (Why shallower would make a flooded mask better, I don't know, but the essence of panic is that it isn't rational.) By the time he got to shore, the panic had abated, and he was absolutely humiliated at what he had done; he almost quit diving altogether over the incident.
So there is a true story of a similarly experienced diver, who encountered something that he had no idea would cause him to panic, but it did. We will never know, I'm sure, what set this diver off the other day, but something did -- whether it was a reg that started breathing wet, or a mask flood, or feeling disoriented, or just letting his buoyancy get away from him (I had an uncontrolled ascent from 70 feet when I was just a bit newer than he was), something sent him to the surface, and he may well have held his breath.
Actually, he took my AOW class as a result of that incident. "D"'s experience was exactly what came to mind when I read about this incident. People who have never had to deal with a chronically-flooding mask in cold water will perhaps not understand what it does to some people ... particularly to a relatively new diver who doesn't understand what's happening.
Depending on susceptibility ... which varies among divers ... mammalian reflex will produce an increasingly powerful urge to bolt to the surface. At first it's an annoyance ... but if the problem isn't resolved quickly it can lead to a sensation that your regulator is breathing in water. After a minute or two you'll experience difficulty breathing ... and at that point the panic cycle sets in and the diver experiences an overpowering urge to bolt to the surface.
I've seen it happen in a few divers ... which is why I emphasize the mask clearing and removal exercises at the OW level (where the diver is in only 20 feet of water) over and over and over until the diver can remove their mask and replace it easily, and without showing any sign of stress. This effectively "rewires" the reflex.
In "D"'s case, the experience of the dive you describe almost caused him to quit diving. We spent about two hours working on it ... first by standing in chest-deep water and having him put his face in the water, maskless, and just breathing off the regulator ... and then by going deeper and having him first flood-n-clear, then remove-n-replace, then finally handing his mask to me and swimming around without it for a minute or so.
"D" went on to become a very competent tech diver. But he first had to "rewire" his instincts ... as do probably the majority of people who dive in cold water.
This might have been a cause in this case. Might not have had anything to do with it. We really do not know. But it's one reason why I don't like seeing the instructor blamed in this situation. We simply do not know what happened ... and it could have been something that many of us would handle routinely, but that a diver with 50 dives may never have experienced before.
The panic cycle is usually triggered when someone is faced with a problem they don't know how to resolve. It might be a very simple problem ... but if they haven't had to deal with it before, it's not simple to them. And once panic sets in, the diver is dangerous not only to themself, but to anyone who attempts to intervene.
First rule of rescue ... don't create a second victim. If someone bolts, usually the only good decision is to let them go, make a safe ascent, and render aid once on the surface. Sounds to me like this is exactly what happened in this circumstance.
In the absense of more information, we really need to keep this in mind ...
... Bob (Grateful Diver)