Is there any way to influence PADI concerning these types of cavern dives for open water scuba-certified divers?
John C. this is PADI's legal and training departments. PADI's legal and training departments, this is John C. He isn't a cave instructor, or even a cave diver, but he has some ideas on how to make your international cavern program run better. I'm sure you'll all have lots to talk about.
It's going to cost you and every one of your dive centers quite a lot of money in time, DM pay, and construction costs for very little benefit to you or your organizations... but hear him out.
So how do we influence the decisions to dive cenote/cavern/caves without training? That is the primary question.
Yes. That is the ONLY question. Better platforms and flowcharts are utterly irrelevant.
You are trying to analyze a single accident and trying to apply "How could we have prevented this one thing? What were the factors that contributed to this one thing?" Bloody useless.
For proper accident analysis and prevention you need to pool information. If the only fatality in decades was this single one then, yes, that would be our data pool and it would be worthwhile to pore over every detail. But it isn't.
There is an organization out there that is better at this than you (or me). They have several people with doctorates written on dive safety and medicine employed full-time on this exact issue. Their findings, from DAN's Annual Report section on cave diving fatalities:
"Little can be learned from the untrained cases except to say that the need for cave diver training is well known and these lives were lost merely reinforcing this well-known maxim."
There is a reason that training is rule number one of the five in cavern and cave classes. Because lack of training is the SINGLE MOST COMMON REASON OF CAVERN/CAVE FATALITIES.
If the student gets more reinforcement on that rule than he does about "don't dive in caves" guess which one sticks.
Which goes back to what Bob said here.
DO NOT GO INTO OVERHEAD UNTRAINED needs to be better reinforced by the instructors. I'm an instructor for three different recreational agencies and this concept is mentioned in all their material. But how much does any given student learning in a landlocked state at a quarry really get this stressed?
When I was working in a tropical location I would brief this one particular popular wreck repeating "Do not penetrate this wreck" over and over and over. Wanna take a stab at how many times I had to pull people backwards out of the wreck by their fun-tips (all guesses will be accepted in a x10 format)? I'd relate, during the briefing, "I am a trained cave diver and technical wreck diver with a great deal of experience and I don't go in here." But I'm pretty sure what people heard was, "My instructor says I'm awesome and this tropical DM is just trying to keep the good stuff to himself because he thinks he's so fancy."
Divers either lack the skill to be in these environments altogether or they are just experienced enough (I'm looking at you OW instructors) to think the rules don't apply to them anymore. They either accidentally or deliberately stray from a safe area and lack the skill to get out. From there I only takes one other thing (not monitoring their pressure closely enough, taking a wrong turn, kicking wrong, their light floods, they lose their mask) any single tiny thing from that point... and they die. In terror.
I think cavern tours can be done safely. But they won't. It would cost money and time that the tour operators are unwilling to commit, because they've decided a few people a year spread among all of them globally is an acceptable rate of loses. I disagree with them and I think they are reckless, heartless douchebags. But there is no way to compel a change... It's their money.
I argue that it would take a cultural shift. Instructors themselves would have to reinforce the lesson. Unfortunately that would take instructors admitting to students that there are things they don't know about diving as they drive that lesson home. And I know MANY professionals who would probably rather die in in cave before making such a confession.
Oh, it would also take a lot of those cavern tour guides to get proper cave training from a proper cave instructor. Most of the cave divers I won't even dive with: trained in Mexico.