David Doolette
Diving Physiologist
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Agreed, but I think it's smaller than the systematic factors for an individual diver.
In a study with many individuals doing the same profile, there is variance in the population. Some have a PFO, some are fat, some smoke. If all run the same profile and 5% get bent, you might read "5% DCS risk" as "this profile is too tough for 5% of the population". That's exactly what you want to know when making a table.
For one individual diver this kind of "randomness" does not exist. Either you have such a risk factor or you don't. One person repeating the same dive over and over again should show more consistent results. But you hardly ever do that anyway, so in the end it's the profiles and dive conditions that vary, and when you get bent you can only guess if it was because of the profile, dehydration, being cold, ..., or just bad luck.
I have the opposite opinion. Some of the decompression trials conducted by the US Navy in the last couple decades are among the few studies where the exact same dive profile has been conducted hundreds (in some cases) of times under rigidly controlled laboratory conditions (depth, time, gas, work, temperature always practically the same). Because there are limited number of experimental subjects, some individual divers will dive the exact same profile on a few (or many) occasions. If ten divers undertake a dive profile one day, diver "A" might get DCS. On the next occasion the same ten divers undertake the exact same dive profile, diver "A" can be fine and diver "B" will get DCS, and so on. This sort of data is incontrovertible evidence that there is intra-individual variability in susceptibility to DCS (i.e. day-to-day variability - or "randomness" - in the same individual). The data that does not exist (as far as I know), is the same ten divers have not conducted the identical dive profile, say, 100 times, to identify if there is a diver "F" who gets DCS more often than everyone else, and a diver "J" who never gets DCS. Some inter-individual variability surely exists, we just have no idea how large it is, or if it is more important than the intra-individual variability.
Everyone thinks they are diver "J" until they get DCS.
David