DiverAnderson once bubbled...
Maybe I'm thinking of buoyancy wrong. I thought that if properly weighted, at the beginning of dive I would be a little heavier than neutral in order to account for the fact that the tank is lighter at the end of the dive and you want to be neutral at the end of the dive. Then the wing is only inflated to account for the wetsuit compression which is significant but not even half of 27lbs. {...}
What do I have wrong here?
I think there's a lot of implicit assumptions in your calcs. (They may be valid, but I'd rather they were explicit.) (Fair disclaimer; I've been refiguring this stuff for myself lately, so this also serves as a "what-have-I-missed" post.)
For each gear set, you need to calculate for three situations: start of dive at surface (I want to descend), end of dive at last stop (I want to be neutral at my stop), and start of dive at depth (I want to be neutral at depth).
They're in that order rather than chronological order because the first two will give you answers in pounds-of-lead, the larger of which becomes an input to the third, whose answer will be in pounds-of-lift.
The factors are {diver at nominal average lung volume}, {gear}, {wetsuit}, {tank}, {weight}, {lift}.
Suppose you're +2 buoyant by yourself.
Your fins, reg, knife, mask (in place), light, etc. are -2.
Wetsuit: +24 at surface, +4 at maximum depth.*
Tank: -2 full, +4 empty.*
*the suit-at-depth and the tank-at-empty are opportunities for conservativism; you could conservatively assume the suit compressed to zero at depth; I used the numbers that seem most common in discussions here.
Sit.1: At start, at the surface, you'll be +2-2+24-2=+22; you need to be >22 pounds heavier to sink. Some is available via deep exhalation, some by swim-down, most by lead (or other weight, e.g. BP.)
Sit.2: At the finish, at the safety stop, you'll be +2-2+24+4=+28. You need to be 28 pounds heavier to stay at your stop. (There's another conservative assumption here; that the wetsuit will be fully uncompressed at the stop. I prefer making that assumption, since it means by implication that I can become neutral, i.e. be completely controlled, anywhere between the stop and the surface.)
Sit.3: At depth, at the beginning (heaviest tank), you'll be +2-2+4-2+{weight}. From situation 2, we got +28, so we'll add -28 of lead for +2-2+4-2-28=-26. You need 26 pounds of lift to be neutral at depth with the full tank and the weight. If you assumed full suit compression, you'd need 30.
(Yes, there are some terms that are identical in all three situations and could be netted out or canceled out, but I find it more useful to reman conscious of them and clearer to explain when they're left in. Also, I think you can ignore situation 1 in practice, since unless your wetsuit compresses non-linearly situation 2 will always be higher.)
You
may want to consider a fourth&fifth situation: you want to be able to doff my gear at the surface or toss it in and don it. Same theories, only you have to run a calc of you, your you-attached gear, and your wetsuit (and your weight if a weightbelt) and a separate calc of your tank, harness, etc. (and weight if BP, STA, integrated, etc.)
Now you do the same calcs for the warm water gear set to get those answers. I haven't run the numbers for the case you propose, but at a glance and depending on some numbers that are personal to you (your inherent buoyancy, your wetsuit's lift) it looks like the 27 pound wing isn't enough lift even with an AL80 for cold water, and it's more than enough for warm.
Mistakes, folks?
--Laird