Cozumel COVID-19 updates

[ggunn]

I realize that people yearn for a return to normalcy (I know I do), but during the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak the problem that became apparent with relaxing the measures taken to inhibit the spread of a contagious disease too soon is that it will trigger another wave of cases. The Spanish flu was not just one outbreak but at least three.

 

[ReefHound]

I realize that people yearn for a return to normalcy (I know I do), but during the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak the problem that became apparent with relaxing the measures taken to inhibit the spread of a contagious disease too soon is that it will trigger another wave of cases. The Spanish flu was not just one outbreak but at least three.

But is there any real way to avoid it? You either need a vaccine or you need people to develop an antibody immunity. Until that happens, I'm not sure there is any time period that is not "too soon".

 

[Jcp2]

Let's remember also that the presence of antibodies does not necessarily guarantee immunity. For example, antibodies produced in HIV, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C infections confer very little immunity to the infection itself. They serve to demonstrate merely that an immune response has occurred to prior infection.

 

[ggunn]

But is there any real way to avoid it? You either need a vaccine or you need people to develop an antibody immunity. Until that happens, I'm not sure there is any time period that is not "too soon".

Yeah, I know. With the Spanish flu, the second and third waves were worse than the first.

A baseball-centric article comparing the novel coronavirus with the Spanish flu:
How the Spanish flu pandemic led to the rise of baseball's greatest legend

 

[nippurmagnum]

But is there any real way to avoid it? You either need a vaccine or you need people to develop an antibody immunity. Until that happens, I'm not sure there is any time period that is not "too soon".

I completely agree. Just like an overly strong immunological response can kill a body, an exaggerated and overly prolonged quarantine (beyond relatively easy and sensible things like telework for those who can do it, not shaking hands, frequent hand washing, and basic social distancing) can kill off a society. If 40 million people lose their jobs in the United States, the damage from the virus itself will be the least of our society's problems.

 

[BRT]

I realize that people yearn for a return to normalcy (I know I do), but during the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak the problem that became apparent with relaxing the measures taken to inhibit the spread of a contagious disease too soon is that it will trigger another wave of cases. The Spanish flu was not just one outbreak but at least three.

And that is what I keep saying. What is the end game? Delay? Ok. But at some point it has to be dealt with.

 

[ggunn]

And that is what I keep saying. What is the end game? Delay? Ok. But at some point it has to be dealt with.

I don't know, either, but dealt with how? Unfortunately, even 102 years after the Spanish flu pandemic we don't have much more to fight viruses with than we did then, at least not in the way of a rapid response. Vaccines help, but they take a long time to develop and they aren't 100% effective. Other than that, all we can do, once someone is infected, is treat the symptoms and hope their immune system can win the fight.

 

[BRT]

I don't know, either, but dealt with how? Unfortunately, even 102 years after the Spanish flu pandemic we don't have much more to fight viruses with than we did then, at least not in the way of a rapid response. Vaccines help, but they take a long time to develop and they aren't 100% effective. Other than that, all we can do, once someone is infected, is treat the symptoms and hope their immune system can win the fight.

And that is the answer. We can "flatten the curve" to try not to overcome our medical system but if we all just hide in our houses every time we come out the problem will reoccur.

 

[ggunn]

And that is the answer. We can "flatten the curve" to try not to overcome our medical system but if we all just hide in our houses every time we come out the problem will reoccur.

I don't see why you call it an answer. If it's a choice between staying at home or risking exposure to a disease that has a good chance of killing me, then I'll stay home as long as the level of risk is unquantifiable. I know that risk is inevitable as long as one is alive, and diving (for example) is all about risk management, but at this point in the pandemic it isn't possible to know the level of risk out there. For now I'll stay home.

By the way, RIP John Prine, a casualty of COVID-19.

 

[ggunn]

Let's remember also that the presence of antibodies does not necessarily guarantee immunity. For example, antibodies produced in HIV, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C infections confer very little immunity to the infection itself. They serve to demonstrate merely that an immune response has occurred to prior infection.

I hope that the novel coronavirus is more like influenza in that respect; if not, I don't see how a vaccine could work.