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mauigal:
A good question, but better directed toward the Medical Forum.
Symptoms of cutaneous leishmaniasis: Skin sores , Raised edge sores - like a volcan with a central crater, Scabs, Swollen glands, Swollen underarm glands.
I don't know what "the chances" are, but most physicians outside of the tropics will have no clue about this. Read this: http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/artic/leishmania_infection_dpd.htm
Where you will read information including this:
Leishmaniasis is spread by the bite of some types of phlebotomine sand flies. Sand flies become infected by biting an infected animal (for example, a rodent or dog) or person. Since sand flies do not make noise when they fly, people may not realize they are present. Sand flies are very small and may be hard to see; they are only about one-third the size of typical mosquitos. Sand flies usually are most active in twilight, evening, and night-time hours (from dusk to dawn). Sand flies are less active during the hottest time of the day. However, they will bite if they are disturbed, such as when a person brushes up against the trunk of a tree where sand flies are resting.
The best way for travelers to prevent leishmaniasis is by protecting themselves from sand fly bites. To decrease their risk of being bitten, travelers should:
Avoid outdoor activities, especially from dusk to dawn, when sand flies are the most active.
Apply insect repellent on uncovered skin and under the ends of sleeves and pant legs.
