Arrest warrant for dive instructor over Nordstream pipeline sabotage

[Nick_Radov]

I can bet that the entire pipeline is covered by radar and that the authorities know the details about every single boat that passed there in the days leading up to the explosion.

How do you figure that? Much of the pipeline route is outside radar coverage from land. Sailboats have a pretty small radar signature if you remove the reflector from the rigging. Vessels above a certain size are supposed to transmit their position via AIS for safety, but those devices are sometimes switched off.

 

[Nick_Radov]

A decent portable side scan sonar setup costs what, 5-25k? Well within the 300k budget the German police said this cost. And this is hardly looking for a needle in a haystack. The pipelines are marked on nautical charts and you can hit it anywhere on its length.

Acquaintances of mine have occasionally rented side-scan sonars for a few days at a time and taken them out on regular charter boats to hunt for wrecks. Everything fits into a few boxes. If you know what you're doing it's not that difficult or expensive. In the 80m depth range with a fairly flat seafloor, even the cheaper units can produce pretty good images.

 

[Vicko]

The pipeline is well charted even in commercial charts, let alone military ones. It's easy to find, that's not the mystery. A garmin side scan sonar with a screen will go up to a 1500 euros if you really want to find it the hard way.
Anchoring is also easy to do. You toss one anchor out for down current, drive up and toss another one up current, you use gps marks to guesstimate where you need to be and set the lines. I could do it alone and I do do it alone often. Nowadays there are also electric gps trolling motors that do it with a press of a button, they cost 3000-4000 euros and are very simple to install and remove.

Precise hot drops were done with saboteur divers in ww2 using nothing but a compass and a time keeper, today they can be done with even more precision thanks to modern technology. I know at least 4-5 divers who could land on a soda can with no guideline and blackout conditions if they had the exact coordinates and a few tide measurements. So if it was just a matter of getting divers down there with a few kg of explosives and picking them up down current without stopping the boat, it's possible. A lot of military divers are trained to do such operations.

So a operation that the news report talk about is possible.

The thing is, the kind of damage we saw in the first ROV videos with meters of pipes being cracked open does not happen with a few imprecisely placed kilos of explosives. It requires directional charges and pilot holes. Those kinds of operations require precision and tools and can't be done easily in a dive or two with no reference points and no hydraulic drills and dredges.

 

[tarponchik]

We can endlessly argue about the charge and other technicalities, but you can tell that Andromeda story is a false alarm by watching what's happening in politics. By issueing arrest warrants, the government of Germany officially admitted that they are confident a crime was commited by Ukrainian nationals against German national interests/properties/citizens (whatever applies). Nevertheless, the government of Germany refrains from any official steps toward the governments of Ukraine or Poland (where at least one of the suspects was located until now). They do not ask Ukraine's ambassador or Zelensky for clarifications; Zelensky does not officially admit or deny his involvement (and why would he if nobody asked?); his adviser denies the WSJ report (but who cares?); it is not clear if Germany officially asked Poland for Zhuravlev's extradition; the government of Poland does nothing and Zhuravlev moves into Ukraine without being arrested in either Poland or Ukraine; none of the NATO members has so far condemned the attack against their ally.

Another suspect, Svitlana Uspenska, denies her involvement and claims she is not trained to dive below 30 m. She lives in Poland and that's OK. There are no reports of her being questioned by German or Polish investigators. The 3d suspect, her husband Yevhen, is a soldier at the frontlines; good luck finding him.

 

[lowwall]

That doesn't mean it didn't happen, just that no one in Poland or the higher levels of the German government is the least bit interested in prosecuting it.

For one thing, they would then have to deal with the question of whether it was a legitimate act of war. Much easier to leave it to be lumped in with all the other details that will have to be dealt with when the war eventually ends.

 

[tarponchik]

That doesn't mean it didn't happen, just that no one in Poland or the higher levels of the German government is the least bit interested in prosecuting it.

For one thing, they would then have to deal with the question of whether it was a legitimate act of war. Much easier to leave it to be lumped in with all the other details that will have to be dealt with when the war eventually ends.

Legit or not, acts of war are commited by states, not by private citizens. Since the only action that the Germans undertook was this arrest warrant, they obviously do not want to get to the states level, and even at this level they do 1/2 ass job. Why? I recon because they know the suspects will prove their innocence and/or some unpleasanties might surface. So this is just a bloody circus.

 

[lowwall]

Legit or not, acts of war are commited by states, not by private citizens. Since the only action that the Germans undertook was this arrest warrant, they obviously do not want to get to the states level, and even at this level they do 1/2 ass job. Why? I recon because they know the suspects will prove their innocence and/or some unpleasanties might surface. So this is just a bloody circus.

I've just been pointing out that what the German police came up to with is possible. That doesn't mean it is necessarily the whole story.

So what's your theory? My initial thought, based on who benefits and who had the opportunity was that it was either the Poles or a joint Polish and Ukrainian operation. The itinerary, the fact that Andromeda was reported by the Polish harbor police who were told to take no action, and the fact that the Poles also took no action on the arrest warrant certainly suggests that the Poles were at least aware of and approved the operation.

The theory is that removing the pipeline removed the largest lever (unlimited cheap gas) Russia had to keep the Germans from fully supporting Ukraine.

 

[tarponchik]

I've just been pointing out that what the German police came up to with is possible. That doesn't mean it is necessarily the whole story.

So what's your theory? My initial thought, based on who benefits and who had the opportunity was that it was either the Poles or a joint Polish and Ukrainian operation. The itinerary, the fact that Andromeda was reported by the Polish harbor police who were told to take no action, and the fact that the Poles also took no action on the arrest warrant certainly suggests that the Poles were at least aware of and approved the operation.

My theory says that this was done not by some amatures but by special ops from either the UK or the US, who planned the operation for some time and practiced it till they were confident they'll do it. The Andromeda and her crew either just happened to be there or, more likely, were lured into the area to be the fall guys, just in case.

As for the "who benefits" question, 1st we need to find who lost.

Russia? Unlikely. Russian revenues from fossil fuel sales peaked at 1,250M Euro per day early in 2022 and then declined linearly because of the sanctions. Nord Streams destruction had no effect at all because most of the decline in Russian pipeline gas sales had already happened in the Summer months of 2022, and there was no gas pumped through the NSs when they were destroyed. By January 2023, the revenues stabilized at around 600-750M per day, thanks to the increase of sales of LNG and of oil to India and China. Sure, Gazprom lost some money, but for a giant like them this isn't critical. They owned $324B of assets in 2020 and their stake in NS2 was just $6B.

Germany? Absolutely. Not only did they lose the profits from the re-sales of Russian gas further on, but they lost cheap Russian gas for their own economy that shrank in 2023. The boom of German economy after 2000 was based on 3 pillars: German skills, cheap Russian gas, China trade. Now that they are forced to buy more expensive LNG and to take part in various EU and US sanctions against China, their economy ist kaput.

So, who benefits from hurting German economy? Make an educated guess.

 

[Valerii Vakshul]

Starting in March 2022, the authorities began to limit and reduce to zero the sale of natural gas to Europe. You can read all the decrees on the Kremlin website kremlin.ru.

 

[admikar]

I'm still waiting to hear how and why it's the Russians that did it.