The purpose of a stress test is a maximum load will put "defective parts" into failure, in this case a critically blocked artery ... and to do this in a controlled setting. In electronics, we also call such evaluations a burn-in. Its not truly to determine one's physical ability to do dives but to find disease that is of concern. A negative test does not mean one has no disease, just that it won't be of concern at least for a year, because only critical blockages will show under marked stress.
How an exercise stress test relates to true sport activity, METS measured via a stress test is a
peak transient performance capacity. A 'touring' or working METS is another issue, its like the difference in energy needs between a sprint, a running marathon or 20 mi march.
Is it a WAG or SWAG? METS 13 is not a wild a** guess but neither has it been analyzed with the same scrutiny as medical studies like cholesterol and heart disease. it likely can be realistically some notches lower, but as it stands its an RSTC standard.
In real recreational dives, a dictum is to exert yourself in-water minimally to reduce risk of nucleation, c02 retention, gas consumption, narcosis, DCS, etc., so the exercise capacity is really there to insure a diver's heart will not be an issue, enhance bubble mechanics and later, provide a reserve capacity in case of emergency. While the working METS for dives is likely in the 4-6 range, the need for a higher capacity can occur without warning, such as emergencies, and buoyancy alone puts a known but poorly quantified load on the heart, without any exertion on the diver's part. Further vascular patency will vary with temperature, and arteries that survived METS 13 in a comfortable stress lab can react differently if the diver is chilled. Add to it, a simple problem like angina will find no relief once it is initiated at depth, even with a diver at rest. Since diving is a heterogenous set of conditions, from calm flat seas and 200+' vis to 1 knot current in rolling seas, from being within drivable range to a major US Medical Center or the remoteness of Vanuatu, the fitness requirement for diving has no set limitations, and is thus set by default to maximal.
Yes, I've sent patients at risk for heart disease to stress tests, and asked specifically that they stick it out to a METS >= 13. Most make it through, the problem are those who don't.
The risk of recreational fatality hovers in the 1/10,000 divers, the risk of a driving fatality in US roads is similar 1/10,000 drivers but driving is a necessity in most US daily life, while diving isn't. Putting those numbers into perspective, ask yourselves do you know anyone killed in a car accident, personally, or a dive accident? Its really not that rare, as compared to asking yourselves if you know anyone who was murdered.
The theory of fitness is rather involved, but few texts touch on its needs as this book does:
SCUBA Diving Exercise and Fitness