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Agreed. The airline industry pricing morons have created a system so complicated that ticket prices often make no sense, and even the insiders can not explain why.
Morons? Far from it. There are many factors for determining fares. There has also been a lot of studies on how to figure fares out.
If one thinks about it, the airline industry is one that struggles to survive. Take into consideration all of the factors for a single flight: price of the plane, maintenance of the plane, airport fees (landing, gate, and take off), fuel - a big factor, overhead (buildings, computer systems, supplies), paying employees, and the list goes on and on. A plane on the ground is costing the airline money. One in the air is making money, hopefully.
Years ago AA tried to simplify air fares to make things simpler for the consumer. After all consumers wanted a better system. It was a complete flop. Why? When the new fares came out other airlines dropped their prices and the consumer flocked to them. A similar took place with rental cars. A friend of mine, who worked for Budget, had worked out a system of letting the customer know exactly what they were going to pay. It too flopped. Why? The other car agencies quoted prices without taxes, fees, and insurance. It sounded cheaper, and the consumers flocked to them. He even rented cars from the other agencies and was able to prove it was more expensive (sometimes only by $10-$20) to rent from his competitor. Customers wouldn't believe him. In short, customers are fickle and are unpredictable. My guess, as others have suggested, is the possibility of the long weekend and they are anticipating higher demand or people willing to pay a premium for that time period. Whether or not it has been booking up is anyone's guess, but some airlines let you view available fare classes and how many tickets are still left in each bucket.
To figure out prices one has to be able to exam all of the factors, apply critical analysis, and then come up with some sort of system that functions. For the airlines it is yield management.
Who are you flying with? AA has grounded 737 Max and demand for Delta has grown (not specific to Bonaire). How The Boeing 737 MAX Grounding Is Benefiting Delta Air Lines - Simple Flying
I wish it was less frustrating booking with Delta. Two years ago, I would find a reasonable price and try to book through their website. First, I would click "buy" ticket. Then, after tediously entering all the passenger info and credit card info, a pop-up would say that the demand for the flight was high, so there's a new price. Basically, clicking on "buy" doesn't lock in the purchase, or it's planned shenanigans. With and without clearing cookies, I would search again and find the exact original price, only to have it increase again due to "high demand" /after/ entering passenger and credit card info. I swore off looking at Delta because the whole thing felt like bait and switch. Has this changed in the last two years?
Sure, not that it actually helped. For what it's worth, I am with you. fares to Bonaire are quite frustrating from a Dollar per traveldistance point of view. Everytime I looked so far this year to get from Chicago to Bonaire, the fare from Amsterdam (and sometimes even from some German airports linking through Amsterdam), the fare from Europe was lower and the it seemed travel time was quite shorter than with the lower fares from Chicago. But whike I have readon to be in Europe every so often it has time wise proven tough to sandwich a whole other trip in the middle.I did. I've also been tracking on Google Flights and Hopper. Thanks for the tip!