I was thinking the same thing as I was looking at a surf cam of 3rd point Malibu. I've got this amazing 9'2" Corky Carroll that's been heavily neglected.
Billy
Schweet, Billy. I have an 8’10” Ian Wright, but I hardly ever ride it. Primarily, because I’ve been riding short boards my whole life and never really took the time to learn how to ride a long board well. You’ll have to come down and show me how it’s done some time. We’ll go hit Trails or something.
In all seriousness, the answer to your original question is, “It depends.” As you point out, the direction and exposure are important components in forecasting surf, but it’s not the whole story. In general, the signature of a swell is represented using three parameters - direction, height, and wave period. The last two (height and period) are significant, as they indicate the amount of energy in ocean. In particular, the wave period (often overlooked) is a strong indication of how deep the energy has been transferred … the longer the wave period; the deeper the energy has been transferred. Long period swell energy (i.e. ground swell) begins to interact with the bottom much earlier. It can bend around points; follow deep UW canyons, etc. Consequently, the energy can be re-directed and focused toward the shore at an angle different from the prevailing swell direction. Shadowing effects (or lack of) can also influence the amount of swell energy that reaches a particular stretch of coast line. Bottom line, is that you ultimately need understand how a spot responds to a given swell signature … which ones are good for diving, good for surfing, or good for sleeping in.
With respect to Wednesday’s event, this one is really shaping up. The things that make it special are:
1) The size and strength of the system. It produced a very large fetch field which has transferred a significant amount of energy into the ocean.
2) The track that it has taken. It has dropped much further south earlier than most NPAC systems. Therefore, it’s coming at us from a very broad angle … almost straight west, in fact. Consequently, the energy won’t see nearly as much coastal and island shadowing. The track looks very similar to the big 12/21/05 event (Big Wednesday).
3) Favorable winds and tides. We have a nice stable high pressure system sitting on us currently. The offshore flow should groom the faces. I hate to use the word epic, but it definitely looks like some spots will see some very good surf conditions tomorrow.
Honestly, Billy I really don’t know what the dive conditions will be like at Malibu tomorrow. I don't know the area well enough. Obviously, because of the S exposure, it’s not going to be double/triple overhead there … Zuma, maybe ...
Black's, most definitely. But even if you could get in and out safely between sets, is it really going to be worth it … especially when you could be surfing ?
Anyway, good luck tomorrow. Please be safe, everyone.
hahaha!
