Cayman possible border reopening without quarantine by April or May!

[deeper thoughts]

Thanks Tony for the informative post. I started diving GC in the 80s and have been back many times and hope to again in the future.

Having been to GC and a number of other islands over the years, especially those that had a big and busy cruise tourism business, I think I can understand the sentiment among some on the island that they did not miss all that came with large influx of tourists. We will continue to patiently wait and return when the time is right.

I feel for all the tourism based businesses on the island and hope this can be put behind them sometime soon.

Skimming the Cayman Compass these past 18 months or so, I am paying just as much attention to the concerning number of violent crime reports as I do to the reopening news. I can't tell if the stories represent an increase or not.

I look forward to our return, hopefully sometime in 2022, and diving with Divetech and some of the other high quality dive ops we have dove with in the past.

Here in the keys in the spring of 2020 the main artery entering the keys was closed to all but residents
The retiree and well off were ecstatic
Most small biz owners were upset
I bet it is similar in GC
For us it was fantastic others not so much
The fed stimulus helped the hospitality staff to a degree, dont know if it is similar in GC

 

[Divetech Cayman]

I’ve recently spoken with a Caymanian business manager who said that it is likely that Cayman will re-open on November 20 as recently announced. He said that “there is now a strong public feeling in favor of re-opening despite the recent increase in local cases of covid.”

This is exactly the sort of thing I'm speaking about. And I don't mean this with any disrespect Kathy. But this businessman doesn't know anything more than the rest of us, simply because Government doesn't know right now.

A quick reminder that the title of this thread is "Cayman possible border reopening without quarantine by April or May" which stemmed from a Government update 2020. To summarize the past 20 months, we were told in March 2020 we were closing for 10 days. We were then told we'd open in September 2020, March 2021, May 2021, October 2021. We don't have a good track record.

I was fairly confident we'd move into phase 4 on October 14. As someone else pointed out, the public sentiment had changed, particularly with the widespread availability of the vaccine here. But then we had our first community transmission and this scared Government into delaying. Since then the outbreak has trended sharply upwards, so it would not at all surprise me to see either the Nov 20 date delayed, or some severe restrictions on entry.

I'm not saying with certainty we are NOT going to open in November 2021. I'm just saying let's not make plans until we see the reopening strategy published by the Cayman Islands Gazette office.

However, he went on to say that it will take time for many businesses to get ready to reopen. They cannot bring non-Cayman staff back until after the quarantine has been lifted on Nov 20.

This will be a major problem. Business can and have been bringing workers in as needed. However it's very tough to recruit overseas employees and takes a while under the best of circumstances. Speaking from experience, from the date you post the job, until the date the new employee arrives is often 3-6 months. Restaurants and watersports operators will bounce right back, as there is still a lot of staff for both on-island who are under-utilized currently.

Hotels will be the big issue. They are already short staffed just for the resident staycations. Many Caymanians who held positions in housekeeping, and food and beverage have gone on to seek other more reliable work, and are hesitant to return to an uncertain industry.

Hotels are also in a massive catch-22. They need to hire in anticipation for the border opening, but don't want to hire until the border opening is certain.

Tony

 

[kensuf]

The reality is, I'm trying manage expectations for our customers. I grow tired of having to respond to angry customer emails and phone calls and explain why they were not allowed to board their flight to Cayman, or why the airline canceled their flight or cruise, or why the hotel canceled their reservation. Or how their group travel got screwed because their trip leaded listened to a post on Facebook about our borders which had no basis in fact or reality. With all the misinformation circulating about our border opening, there is no shortage of these angry emails.

Oof, I'm so sorry to read this. I guess there's no shortage of people that seem to have magical thinking that you can just snap your fingers and everything will open back up, or that blame you for the fact you guys have basically been out of work for almost two years while the government kept the borders closed. You truly have my deepest sympathies.

 

[AggieDiver]

Thanks for the info and the efforts to keep us informed Tony! I have long said that I thought there was a sizable part of the citizenry there...probably mostly employed by the government or the financial services industry that sees little to no downside to tourism staying shut down. How much sway they have over what happens in the government is probably up for some debate, but clearly the Cayman Islands are far less dependent on tourism than most of the Caribbean neighbors. If they have held out this long, I see no reason to expect them to suddenly be in a hurry to reopen with their case #s trending upward. However, once it becomes apparent there (as it has elsewhere) that the vaccines are doing very little to prevent infection or slow transmission, the government may either go back into lockdown hoping to ride it out, or they may shrug their shoulders and say "we tried" and go ahead and open up. Given their recent history, I lean towards believing they will lock down again and push the date back once again. But who really knows at this point. I have been coming to the sister islands since 1995 and would love to come back. But I am not going to plan any trips there until they are completely open and have been for at least 9 months. The government has shown no willingness to consider the fate of the tourism industry in their decision making up until now, so I have no confidence that they will not arbitrarily shut things down again with no warning in the future.

 

[tridacna]

…and the flat earthers crawl out of their holes.

 

[AggieDiver]

…and the flat earthers crawl out of their holes.

If that is directed at my vaccine comments, I think it is a bit misplaced. I am not anti-vax or denying that it has value in limiting the severity of infections...which is what the flu vaccine does as well. But it has become clear from many locations with high vax rates that are seeing rising case rates and transmission among people who are vaccinated that it isn’t a magic bullet. And nobody should have honestly expected it to be. Places that think they are going to reach 80+% vax rates and then the virus will stop spreading are going to be surprised when it doesn’t happen that way. That is not a ”flat earth” viewpoint, it is the view that is widely supported by science.

 

[Divetech Cayman]

If that is directed at my vaccine comments, I think it is a bit misplaced. I am not anti-vax or denying that it has value in limiting the severity of infections...which is what the flu vaccine does as well. But it has become clear from many locations with high vax rates that are seeing rising case rates and transmission among people who are vaccinated that it isn’t a magic bullet. And nobody should have honestly expected it to be. Places that think they are going to reach 80+% vax rates and then the virus will stop spreading are going to be surprised when it doesn’t happen that way. That is not a ”flat earth” viewpoint, it is the view that is widely supported by science.

It pains me to even respond to this, because comments like this are fear mongering, which I dislike. The Cayman Islands Government is aware the vaccine is not a magic bullet, and does not 100% reduce transmission of COVID.

However it is a great layer of protection. It does reduce transmission, hospitalizations and most importantly - deaths. Like seat belts and airbags, the vaccine does not completely remove all risk, but helps minimize it, and is far better then not having a vaccine.

From the CDC website, which I'd encourage you to review:

Back on topic, (maybe the mods can keep this focused on the topic at hand, and not vaccine arguments) and the reason I even address this, is because I came on there to say that the Cayman Islands HSA posted that as of November 1, the Cayman Islands have hit the 80% vaccinated rate we were hoping to achieve for border reopening. This is good news, and now gives me more conficence in a November 20 move to phase 4.

 

[AggieDiver]

Tony, I am not fear mongering and I am disappointed that my post is being taken that way. I was simply speculating that case counts will inevitably go up when the Caymans reopen without quarantine and wondering which direction the government reaction would go. I totally agree with you and wasn't trying to start a derail of the thread into vaccine effectiveness. That stats you posted were what I meant when I said it reduced severity (i.e. hospitalizations and deaths). CDC also says:

"For the Delta variant, early data indicate vaccinated and unvaccinated persons infected with Delta have similar levels of viral RNA and culturable virus detected, indicating that some vaccinated people infected with the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 may be able to transmit the virus to others.(163, 164, 177-180) However, other studies have shown a more rapid decline in viral RNA and culturable virus in fully vaccinated people (96, 177, 180-182). One study observed that Delta infection in fully vaccinated persons was associated with significantly less transmission to contacts than persons who were unvaccinated or partially vaccinated.(181)"

Which is to say that the vaccine doesn't completely prevent people from catching or transmitting the virus. What I was trying to say was that in places (like the Caymans) that have been totally locked down for a long time and haven't had many cases relative to other countries, there might be the idea in some people's minds that reaching that 80% vaccination rate would result in the "herd immunity" we heard so much about through 2020, and people would expect to be able to reopen and not see significant community spread. If reopening starts and there is a significant incidence of cases among vaccinated people, what is your take on how the Cayman government will react? In most places, the big issue has been the unvaccinated folks filling up the hospitals, so hopefully that wouldn't be a big issue with the high vaccination rate in the Caymans, but how do you think they will react if the case counts go up without a rise in hospitalizations?

 

[Divetech Cayman]

OK in that case I will apologize for my comments. I've been living and working in an area that has an extraordinarily high amount of anti-vaxxers in the local and expat community, so I have a bit of a hair trigger on this issue.

However, once it becomes apparent there (as it has elsewhere) that the vaccines are doing very little to prevent infection or slow transmission, the government may either go back into lockdown hoping to ride it out, or they may shrug their shoulders and say "we tried" and go ahead and open up.

I would submit though, that comments like this need a bit more, so they are not taken out of context, as myself and others did.

Which is to say that the vaccine doesn't completely prevent people from catching or transmitting the virus. What I was trying to say was that in places (like the Caymans) that have been totally locked down for a long time and haven't had many cases relative to other countries, there might be the idea in some people's minds that reaching that 80% vaccination rate would result in the "herd immunity" we heard so much about through 2020, and people would expect to be able to reopen and not see significant community spread. If reopening starts and there is a significant incidence of cases among vaccinated people, what is your take on how the Cayman government will react? In most places, the big issue has been the unvaccinated folks filling up the hospitals, so hopefully that wouldn't be a big issue with the high vaccination rate in the Caymans, but how do you think they will react if the case counts go up without a rise in hospitalizations?

HSA knows this. We have lots of smart Doctors and health care practitioners working here and aiding government.

To answer this question, we are treading in an area of speculation based on things I've heard, and not things in writing. I've heard Government is using hospitalizations and deaths here as a key metric, and we have had very few of both.

We've had a sharp upward spike in cases, yet Government has continually beat the drum that "we knew this was coming, this is the new normal, get vaccinated" sort of messages. A benefit of this surge we are having is it drove the vaccine rate up pretty nicely after it had settled for so long.

Our Premier specifically answered rumors that we are not going into lockdown again, despite the sharp rise in cases. Hopefully it remains this way. If we see a sharp uptick in hospitalizations and deaths, then I imagine we could be in trouble.

 

[AggieDiver]

I would submit though, that comments like this need a bit more, so they are not taken out of context, as myself and others did.

Thanks, and I will apologize for my lack of clarity on what I meant, because I can see how that could be taken the wrong way. I am glad to hear the government seems to have a fairly rational take on what to expect and hope it translates to a smooth reopening going forward. Thanks again for your insight into what is going on and sorry again for the derail into vaccine issues.