When do you think virus-related disruptions will end?

[Dan]

I'm still hanging on my booked July 21-26 trip to Guadalupe, Mexico on Nautilus Belle Amie. Just put $800 deposit, so far.

 

[Angelo Farina]

I'm still hanging on my booked July 21-26 trip to Guadalupe, Mexico on Nautilus Belle Amie. Just put $800 deposit, so far.

I truly, warmly hope that you can do it...
From my point of view it would be impossible even to dream this. I was asked a few minutes ago to inform the EU offices of when I plan to be able to start a new research project that they have just approved, and which was planned to start on 1st July.
I answered 1 October, being very, very, very optimistic!

 

[martincohn]

It does to me.
My race is HAN not chinese. Get it right.
There is NO such thing as chinese race!

Chinese people - Wikipedia

Actually there is only one race on the planet, unless you're from Uranus.

 

[Rickk]

...
Death rate is higher because Italy make Covid Test only to simptomatic people not to everyone .

I read one article that suggested that the death rate in Italy was higher because it got into an older segment of the population. Also smoking is more prevalent in Italy than many other countries. Older smokers with perhaps more underlying health issues will result in a higher death rate. More males were also infected and male death rate is higher. There were also significant testing rate differences that skewed the numbers.

South Korea on the other hand the infection was more in younger females, only 5% of Korean females smoke.

While the report did not have enough data to make the prediction, they suggested that the Italian death rate and the S Korean death rates were about the same once you adjusted for the age, gender, and smoking/general health differences as well as testing rate differences.

That is the death rate of older male smokers or younger female non smokers was about the same in each country.

 

[Centrals]

https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/median-age/

The Median age of Germany(No.3) is a bit higher than Italy(No.5).

 

[Angelo Farina]

https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/median-age/

The Median age of Germany(No.3) is a bit higher than Italy(No.5).

Exactly.
There are other two factors which provide a better explanation of our high mortality rate compared to Germany:
1) we report as related to COVID-19 any death of a patient testing positive, even he had other pathologies which actually caused the death. In Germany, instead, they report only cases in which the coroner wrote that the cause of the death was COVID-19.
2) Germany is making a large number of tests, hence they are probably detecting a large percentage of people really infected. Unfortunately we, and particularly the Lombardy region, are not equipped with the same testing capabilities. So we are actually testing only people which are hospitalised, and with evident symptom of COVID-19. There are scientific studies which proof that in Italy the number of infected is at least 5 times larger than the number officially reported. This means that the denominator of the mortality ratio is strongly underestimated. It means also that the virus is really spread to a significant percentage of the Italian population...

 

[kelemvor]

It means also that the virus is really spread to a significant percentage of the Italian population.

I bet this holds true in every country, it's just that you know about it in Italy as it's been studied.

 

[Angelo Farina]

I bet this holds true in every country, it's just that you know about it in Italy as it's been studied.

Well, actually in countries such as Germany and South Korea, where massive testing campaigns have been undertaken, such an overestimation is not so gross. If here there is a factor of 5, in those countries they have probably captured at least 90% of the infected... Probably 99% in S.Korea.
I am working with Koreans, and they keep me informed on how they managed the situation: much better than here, there is no doubt! The point is that they were prepared to an epidemic, and they actively searched for positive cases since the beginning of the year.
Here instead the rule was not to test anyone, except quite evident cases of people with bad symptoms and also coming from infected areas.
We had an anomalous number of severe pneumonia cases starting as early as December 2019 here in Italy, but no one was testing patients for COVID-19.

 

[urbaneve71]

To answer the question.....July 12th will be the all clear.

almost forgot what the question was - we got so off topic

 

[BRT]

almost forgot what the question was - we got so off topic

We really should have a pool. Would that get @The Chairman in trouble?