Best time to book flights

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Grateful head

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We just returned from Cozumel one week ago and I am trying to plan a return trip there, or another Caribbean destination TBD for this fall. I booked our flight to Cozumel last December for our mid March trip. I paid $325 per ticket on American Airlines. Looking now on different sites and I see them averaging about $560. I have researched best time to book flights in the past and talked to travel agents and have received conflicting info. In or out of the six month window, booking on a Tuesday ect....so I am asking here... general thoughts on when to book a flight for this fall and how does Covid and the possible forthcoming travel boom affect future flights?
 
in canada we sometimes have to wait for seasonal flights to be scheduled. i think they come out in the summer. other than that, we just wait for seat sales to come up. booking too far in advance can be a problem. schedules can change.
 
We just returned from Cozumel one week ago and I am trying to plan a return trip there, or another Caribbean destination TBD for this fall. I booked our flight to Cozumel last December for our mid March trip. I paid $325 per ticket on American Airlines. Looking now on different sites and I see them averaging about $560. I have researched best time to book flights in the past and talked to travel agents and have received conflicting info. In or out of the six month window, booking on a Tuesday ect....so I am asking here... general thoughts on when to book a flight for this fall and how does Covid and the possible forthcoming travel boom affect future flights?
Broadly speaking, airlines have one, and only one goal. To fill the plane completely, such that a full-fare walk-up business traveler settles into her seat just as the door closes. They have extremely sophisticated "yield management" systems to help make this happen. They will only lower prices if they think there's a danger of the plane not filling. Not for any other reason. Maybe at one time there was a Tuesday effect because of travel agents but I certainly never saw it, and it seems like most people are booking their flights while "at work" so who knows? I'm skeptical that there ever were "best times" (except for Southwest, you almost always want to book right when the flight opens). But if there were, those rules have gone completely out the window in the pandemic.
So you need to book when they think they won't fill the plane. That's hard to do, their whole job is the fill the plane. But if you can find a time when demand is dropping unexpectedly, you'll get a good fare. This can happen for a whole bunch of reasons. A competitor has added capacity to the route, leaving empty seats. Demand for travel overall decreases because people know they are putting themselves and their communities at risk, or that there's a good chance the flight will be cancelled/change routing/something else bad. Or news breaks about a particular destination (e.g., terrorism, crime, political unrest) and it's suddenly less appealing. I think your instincts are right that we're at the edge of a travel boom such as the world has never seen, so drops in demand are unlikely.
This is a very long way of saying the only thing you can do is know what a "good" price is for your route (I set alerts on Google Flights), and snap it up when you find one you're willing to pay. There's a real floor here. It costs the airline over $300 to operate a round trip on that route, not including taxes. They're not going to be selling tickets for $150. They would cancel the flight instead (I think technically they're not supposed to but "operational reasons" can do a lot of work). But they'll certainly sell them for $600 if they think they can get it.
You can also look into "travel hacking", for coach class it's more work than I'm willing to do, but people do find deals, either by getting miles on credit cards, or last-minute sales.
 
TBH, I think that the effects that this world wide pandemic has had on the airline industry, all of the "old rules of thumb" and "conventional wisdom" may no longer apply - or at least not until things start to return to normal.

It used to be that the best time to buy airline tickets would be 6-8 weeks in advance of your travel on a Tuesday just before the "Close of business" (5:00pm). This is when airlines would try to unload any remaining seats on a given flight. I don't think that holds true today. With the lack of travel, both long haul and short haul flights have been seen to have extremely flexible schedules as airlines try to come to terms with a market that is now a small fraction of what it was just 2 years ago.
 
Book your flights the day after I do.

Save buckets o’ money.
 
Book your flights the day after I do.

Save buckets o’ money.
That’s funny.
Broadly speaking, airlines have one, and only one goal. To fill the plane completely, such that a full-fare walk-up business traveler settles into her seat just as the door closes. They have extremely sophisticated "yield management" systems to help make this happen. They will only lower prices if they think there's a danger of the plane not filling. Not for any other reason. Maybe at one time there was a Tuesday effect because of travel agents but I certainly never saw it, and it seems like most people are booking their flights while "at work" so who knows? I'm skeptical that there ever were "best times" (except for Southwest, you almost always want to book right when the flight opens). But if there were, those rules have gone completely out the window in the pandemic.
So you need to book when they think they won't fill the plane. That's hard to do, their whole job is the fill the plane. But if you can find a time when demand is dropping unexpectedly, you'll get a good fare. This can happen for a whole bunch of reasons. A competitor has added capacity to the route, leaving empty seats. Demand for travel overall decreases because people know they are putting themselves and their communities at risk, or that there's a good chance the flight will be cancelled/change routing/something else bad. Or news breaks about a particular destination (e.g., terrorism, crime, political unrest) and it's suddenly less appealing. I think your instincts are right that we're at the edge of a travel boom such as the world has never seen, so drops in demand are unlikely.
This is a very long way of saying the only thing you can do is know what a "good" price is for your route (I set alerts on Google Flights), and snap it up when you find one you're willing to pay. There's a real floor here. It costs the airline over $300 to operate a round trip on that route, not including taxes. They're not going to be selling tickets for $150. They would cancel the flight instead (I think technically they're not supposed to but "operational reasons" can do a lot of work). But they'll certainly sell them for $600 if they think they can get it.
You can also look into "travel hacking", for coach class it's more work than I'm willing to do, but people do find deals, either by getting miles on credit cards, or last-minute sales.
Awesome explanation of the industry.
TBH, I think that the effects that this world wide pandemic has had on the airline industry, all of the "old rules of thumb" and "conventional wisdom" may no longer apply - or at least not until things start to return to normal.

It used to be that the best time to buy airline tickets would be 6-8 weeks in advance of your travel on a Tuesday just before the "Close of business" (5:00pm). This is when airlines would try to unload any remaining seats on a given flight. I don't think that holds true today. With the lack of travel, both long haul and short haul flights have been seen to have extremely flexible schedules as airlines try to come to terms with a market that is now a small fraction of what it was just 2 years ago.
 
TBH, I think that the effects that this world wide pandemic has had on the airline industry, all of the "old rules of thumb" and "conventional wisdom" may no longer apply - or at least not until things start to return to normal.

It used to be that the best time to buy airline tickets would be 6-8 weeks in advance of your travel on a Tuesday just before the "Close of business" (5:00pm). This is when airlines would try to unload any remaining seats on a given flight. I don't think that holds true today. With the lack of travel, both long haul and short haul flights have been seen to have extremely flexible schedules as airlines try to come to terms with a market that is now a small fraction of what it was just 2 years ago.
That’s why I’m wondering if the $325 I paid in December compared to the $560 today is a good deal to the possible $750 in June or July. Trying to predict the unpredictable.
 
I tend to use points and will book flights as far ahead as possible, usually in parallel with LOB booking. While this may not always be the least expensive approach, it ensures that I am locked in to my trip.
 
I tend to use points and will book flights as far ahead as possible, usually in parallel with LOB booking. While this may not always be the least expensive approach, it ensures that I am locked in to my trip.
I tend to do the same thing. While “least expensive” would be nice, I am more concerned about paying “ most expensive”.
 
While “least expensive” would be nice, I am more concerned about paying “ most expensive”.

i may adopt this as my new mantra
 
https://www.shearwater.com/products/perdix-ai/

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