Florida offshore oil rigs

[cdiver2]

Bad news, good news

The figure being guessed at today is 42,000 gallons of oil a day

At the rate of 42,000 gallons of oil a day, the leak would have to continue for 262 days to match the 11-million-gallon spill from the Exxon Valdez in 1989, the worst oil spill in United States history.

The exxon Valdez spill covered an area of 1,000-1800 square miles in a protected area (weather and shore line) that I think would be easier to contain than the spill in the open waters of the Gulf, even weather permitting. The spill in the Gulf reached 600 square miles in a couple of days.

Like wise I dont know if burning is better or not however burning will not stop the leak.

 

[Guba]

More "good news-bad news", but I'm not exactly certain which is which.

The damage from the Exxon Valdez was more concentrated because all that oil had practically no place to go, therefore it piled up on shores in thick layers. In the Gulf of Mexico, it tends to spread out in a much larger sheen, which can be only a few dozen molecules thick. However, when that sheen is driven en-masse upon a shoreline, it can become extremely significant as it builds up.

So, I guess I'm not exactly certain which is worse...concentrated damage in a smaller area, or diminished damage over a huge area.

Perhaps there is no real "good news" after all.

 

[iztok]

Bad news, good news

The figure being guessed at today is 42,000 gallons of oil a day

At the rate of 42,000 gallons of oil a day, the leak would have to continue for 262 days to match the 11-million-gallon spill from the Exxon Valdez in 1989, the worst oil spill in United States history.

I am glad we are counting "not matching the worst oil spill" as a good thing.

 

[captain]

The 42,000 gallons a day is a guesstimate, there is no way to actually measure it so it could be more or less. Also there were 400,000 gallons of diesel on the rig to fuel it that may be contributing to the sheen but will evaporate rather quickly.
The ROV,s are still trying to operate the shear ram on the subsea BOP stack. If they can do that it essentially seals the well off.
The BOP should have closed automaticly but it didn't for an unknown reason.
The BOP's all worked when Katrina destroyed several rigs and there were no spills.

 

[Guba]

Uh, oh...just saw that the new output estimates are closer to 5000 barrels per day. That certainly ups the ante a mite.

 

[cdiver2]

Uh, oh...just saw that the new output estimates are closer to 5000 barrels per day. That certainly ups the ante a mite.

BBC News - Gulf of Mexico oil slick said to be five times bigger

 

[captain]

The 5000 barrels a day was from the NOAA, what leads them to make that estimate vs the 1000 barrels a day originally, is the unanswered question, as I said before there is no direct way to measure the flow.
The reported third leak is also some what of a question mark. The source of the supposed new leak is now being shown to be same as one of two leaks originally shown. One at the open end of the section of broken drill pipe still connected to the well and another in an apparent crack in the same section but closer to the BOP. These were the two leaks originally mentioned.
A third leak is the oil leaking from the open end of the drill pipe section that is still connected to the sunken rig. This is the residual oil that was in the drill pipe when it separated and is limited to the amount remaining in the broken pipe and is not emanating from the well itself and will stop on its own. I don't know the diameter or length of the drill pipe but the oil remaining in it can be easily calculated by those with that information.

As usual, the news media not being familiar with such situations appears to be dispensing some contradictory information.

The main issue now is weather related with an approaching front and resultant change in wind speed and direction.

 

[widget]

As usual, the news media not being familiar with such situations appears to be dispensing some contradictory information.

To be fair, I dont think its just the media, theres NOAA, the BP press office and various other organisations all putting out their own version of events, and its becoming increasingly difficult to know who to believe.

BP has also been quick to dispute the NOAA findings of 5000 barrels a day, sticking to their original release of around 1000 barrels a day, but, as they have a vested interest, some would argue this is obvious, however, I dont think the NOAA findings can just be disregarded, they appear to have done their homework, and have based their findings on recognisable criteria like the slick size and the speed at which it is increasing in dimensions.

Sadly,what ever the actual leak volume, I think theres a serious element of desperation here, the slick is increasing in size, inclement weather is hampering operations, and, it looks increasingly like the leading edge of the slick will hit the Mississippi delta any day soon, with possibly months before they can stem the flow of oil, I think this has the potential to be a real disaster.

 

[captain]

I just started to get the smell of oil. I am about 100 miles northwest of the spill. The southeast wind has been increasing all day.

 

[widget]

I just started to get the smell of oil. I am about 100 miles northwest of the spill. The southeast wind has been increasing all day.

Grief, that dosnt sound promising.

I just saw on the CNN news that concensus is now that the outflow is - quote - "even larger than expected", what that means, I dont know, but it seems there is a mad scramble to keep it from hitting the shores today.

I just cant help feeling this is a lot bigger than is been let on.