Thanks for the analysis Mr X. As I suspected, it looks like this will be profitable - even if marginally so. I suspect if Sea Shepherd can decrease the total catch significantly it could tip the expeditions into loss. I seem to remember them making this point last year.
For the warehousing - the latest trends I saw showed a small reduction in the amount warehoused over the past three or so years - i.e. consumption marginally outstripping supply.
Here is a chart showing this - I can't link PNG files but you can click to view:
inventoryratio_0902.png (image)
You can see the number of months inventory has fallen from around 9 months to around 6 months worth since 2005.
The analysis continues. And probably will for some time as the whole bloody enchilada is wrapped up mostly in politics, deals and some degree of cheating. Current data is not easily available , nor transparent from a simple net-based analysis. Going into ICR archives would probably yield an accurate picture of operations vs. profit.
Updated midpoint-analysis: the profit margin from the Antarctic whaling seems to be offset by the cost of the entire Antarctic operation with a major chunk of the profit money probably being funneled into maintaining ICR. The operating cost of ICR easily ranges into several million dollars a year and government subsidies keep this ICR/fleet afloat. Note - the government subsidizes the "regular" fishing industry too as fish catch %'s have declined over the years. These steady declines in regular fishing may correlate to the continued need to harvest whales at all costs.
In short, keep em' employed.
What's interesting about the "scientific" loophole is the harvest of non-Minke which adds a high % of profit to the coffers. A Fin whale bringing in as much 500,000.00 vs. a Minke which may be 50,000.00. So, hunting an endangered species is not out of the question and difficult to monitor.
Sneaking in those few Fins, Sperm, Bryd's etc adds premium value to the total.
Until the next update (which is a tedious affair) and
where I eat my words, or not...the findings which everyone probably knows are:
1. Disruption of Antarctic whaling makes it difficult for the fleet to make a profit.
2. The Japanese government subsidizes a large portion of the industry and contributes to ICR which is the "scientific" and boat charter agency. Without subsidies whaling in the Antarctic would be difficult, if not impossible.
3. The
harvest of other species adds to the value of the catch.
4. You can expect this "scientific" operation to continue as world economies struggle necessitating a need to keep Japanese people employed.
5. Non-whaling nations will have little impact on what the Japanese Whaling Fleet / ICR do.
In short, whaling will continue in the Antarctic for some time until the Japanese government deems it obsolete. It is depressing as all get out. :depressed:
X