Will the swell in Monterey be gone by Monday?
- Thread starter ccredifo
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So ccredifo, your takeaway point should be that we are all horribly useless.
Please check with Nostradamus for professional predictions.
Here is my $0.02.
With the swell and especially this odd warning I wouldn't expect amazing viz. Also the forecast Buoy Forecast - Surf Height (STORMSURF) looks to be holding through Monday so I don't know what that means as far as rip currents and such, but I would suggest using caution when diving Monday.
With the swell and especially this odd warning I wouldn't expect amazing viz. Also the forecast Buoy Forecast - Surf Height (STORMSURF) looks to be holding through Monday so I don't know what that means as far as rip currents and such, but I would suggest using caution when diving Monday.
Dan Chua
Registered
20 seconds is the period of the swell. How this translates to the beach is longer swell periods mean more time between waves and surge during the sets. I would think that this would bode better for diving than a 10-12 sec period of similar wave heights. The longer the period the faster the swell trains are moving, meaning that as the swell decays the periods should get shorter.
Swell models for this event have been all over the map. Some people claiming triple over head surf, some saying solid but not huge. And NOAA, which I find usually overestimates, seems to be forecasting on the smaller side. One way or another there will be solid swell in the water coming from a pretty westerly direction, which as Chuck said should help provide some shadowing inside the Monterey are of the Bay.
This first swell is supposed to be peaking on Fri. night/Sat. morning. As for Monday, they are forecasting the another bump in swell on Sun. afternoon, which probably doesn't help if you are hoping for things to clear up. We are still going to try and dive of our boat on Sat. We do have reservations at Lobos on Sun., but I have a feeling that it won't be very good for diving.
That's my two cents, for what it's worth.
Dan
Swell models for this event have been all over the map. Some people claiming triple over head surf, some saying solid but not huge. And NOAA, which I find usually overestimates, seems to be forecasting on the smaller side. One way or another there will be solid swell in the water coming from a pretty westerly direction, which as Chuck said should help provide some shadowing inside the Monterey are of the Bay.
This first swell is supposed to be peaking on Fri. night/Sat. morning. As for Monday, they are forecasting the another bump in swell on Sun. afternoon, which probably doesn't help if you are hoping for things to clear up. We are still going to try and dive of our boat on Sat. We do have reservations at Lobos on Sun., but I have a feeling that it won't be very good for diving.
That's my two cents, for what it's worth.
Dan
The energy content goes up as the second or third power of the interval.
20 seconds is REALLY long, and even with low swell will generate quite
a bit of surge. And plenty of energy in the surfline. Use your judgement.
20 seconds is REALLY long, and even with low swell will generate quite
a bit of surge. And plenty of energy in the surfline. Use your judgement.
I'm with Chuck on this one. Use you best judgment. The ones that scare me are when the swell height and the interval match, i.e., 9 ft at 9 seconds. Then you know you'll be in for a rough ride.
I've seen some pretty stellar days in spite of big swells with very long intervals. It does make photography a bit more "challenging" though, as you tend to get surge even at 100 ft. Just think of the camera as one thing to leave in the car if you're shore diving, especially if you're going to Monastery.
I've seen some pretty stellar days in spite of big swells with very long intervals. It does make photography a bit more "challenging" though, as you tend to get surge even at 100 ft. Just think of the camera as one thing to leave in the car if you're shore diving, especially if you're going to Monastery.
Is anybody going out tomorrow morning? I'm trying to decide if it's worth heading down Sunday or Monday, and reports from tomorrow morning would be extremely helpful...
Coll
Guest
I'll be going out tomorrow morning maybe (Dive buddy isn't feeling 100%). If we go it will probably be on the Monterey side but I'll let you guys know how it is.
The 3pm forecast went back up a bit (yes, supercomputers or not, it's still
an imprecise science). Me, I'm going to get up at 4:50, check the forecast
and the actuals, and either get up and dive, or go back to sleep.
.SAT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND WAVES 2 FT OR LESS. W SWELL 7 TO 9 FT AT 18 SECONDS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 2 FT.
W SWELL 7 TO 9 FT AT 16 SECONDS.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT OR LESS.
W SWELL 7 TO 9 FT.
an imprecise science). Me, I'm going to get up at 4:50, check the forecast
and the actuals, and either get up and dive, or go back to sleep.
.SAT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND WAVES 2 FT OR LESS. W SWELL 7 TO 9 FT AT 18 SECONDS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WIND WAVES 1 TO 2 FT.
W SWELL 7 TO 9 FT AT 16 SECONDS.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. WIND WAVES 2 FT OR LESS.
W SWELL 7 TO 9 FT.
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