Will the swell in Monterey be gone by Monday?

[ccredifo]

I'm flying in town on Sunday and scheduled to dive in Monterey on Monday, Jan. 19th. How long does a swell generally last? Should I even bother bringing my gear?

I don't know enough about the weather patterns to really tell if diving will be possible.

 

[Divenomad]

Ah, if only such prescience was possible. It's far too early to judge, and Monterey can either break your heart or be a blessing from the Gods, and it's not unusual for the conditions to defy a forecast. Most times, I have to go take a look at the beach on the morning of the dive. To be honest, you usually get the best vis this time of year, and it's rare that some part of our little dive haven is not at all divable. You have pretty good odds of getting wet if you don't absolutely insist on perfect conditions.

-Nomad

 

[Gombessa]

A 5-7ft west swell is a no-brainer for me - I would have hopes for anywhere from average-to-very good conditions. I've found that forecasting visibility from the swell models is really hit or miss, some 2-3ft swell days are murky, some sloshy 8-10ft swell days are crystal clear at depth, there are a lot of other factors involved.

I don't need to fly to get to Monterey, but I'd say it's definitely worth bringing your gear based on Monday's forecast, especially if it's not going to cost you anything to do so. My experience with the swell model has been that it's always worth heading to the water and seeing the conditions for yourself--some place in Monterey is almost always diveable.

 

[Anti-Hero]

What they both said - Monterey is a 3hr drive for me, and I've never shown up and not been able to dive.

 

[ccredifo]

Great, looks like I'm going diving!

 

[dhammer]

A swell like we're expecting this weekend is going to tear up a lotta stuff. Shredded bits of everything could be suspended in the water column for days afterward, especially inside the bay where there's less current to carry it away. I think your best bet will be to try a boat dive or check out the shore sites on the Carmel side if it's calm enough by then.
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Safety warning issued due to high surf 1/15/09

Today at 9:55am
The California Department of Parks and Recreation has issued a public safety warning due to high surf in Central and Northern California beginning today and continuing through Sunday.
The forecast is for dangerous rip currents and 14- to 17-foot waves throughout the weekend.
The advisory said state parks and public beaches may be closed in anticipation of these conditions.
As a precaution, beachgoers are advised to stay out of the water and avoid rocky areas.
If caught in a rip current, the advisory said, stay calm, and swim out of the current in a direction following the shoreline. When out of the current, swim toward the shore.
If unable to swim, calmly tread water until out of the rip current, and call for help.

 

[ccredifo]

If the conditions were great I was going to do my first solo dive at Breakwater on Sunday. Guess that's not going to happen.

I'm booked for boat diving on Monday. Hopefully the captain can find a spot that's acceptable.

 

[micboucher]

I see you weren't kidding Devin. Public Safety Warning: High Surf Expected along the California Coast.

It's odd how the swell reports on these sites don't look too bad for the weekend.

WetSand.com > Surf Reports > Northern California

NDBC - NWS Forecast

 

[Gombessa]

Michelle - I'm with you there. Why aren't these large, predicted swells being representatively reflected in the swell forecasts?

 

[dhammer]

Yes, that IS odd, and especially so that they don't mention the swell timing (maybe their system isn't firing on all cylinders). The warnings are talking about a VERY deep swell - up to 20 seconds. I'm betting that Breakwater is going to get pounded.