Indeed, after over 30 years in the industry I pretty much know a few people in most parts of the world who make their living from diving, not one is positive of a future made solely from scuba. All of them have already been forced to or are planning on adding other revenue streams to simply stay in business and pay the bills.
I have said it before and I stick by it, diving is not something most people can do daily, hence the investment in time and resources is out of proportion of the return they receive, people can come home from work, pull on a pair of cheap (in comparison) shoes and go jog around their neighborhood, they can go cycle with their kids or spouse, they can pop a few golf balls at the range, or Rollerblade around the park or go to the local gym. Their investment is returned daily in quality time. Diving unfortunately is equipment and site intensive and for most it takes a lot more effort and planning, an investment that most people today are simply not prepared to put in anymore.
I agree.
However, there are a few places, but very very few, that a person could simply strap on some gear, cross the road, go down some stairs to the beach and go in the water for a shore dive after work. A few select places in Southern California or Catalina Island would be a few along with a small handfull of other places world wide, but in the real world diving involves at least a car ride or boat, plane, whatever to get wet.
For me where I live I leave the house at 6:00 AM and return by 4:00 PM and managed to get in two single tank shore dives worth about 2 hours bottom time max. Then after I get home I clean gear. That's a lot of time, gas, park fees, etc. for two dives in cold murky water with not the best conditions sometimes.
What was once a marginal sport at best to get people around here to dive locally is almost obsolete now.
Most of my friends that I dove with 15 years ago moved on, and the once fairly vibrant local dive community by in large has dried up. With world wide travel most of the divers seen now are the same ones that were there 10 years ago with very few new divers replacing the ones who left (so I am told, I can't afford to travel), or they retired out, got too old, don't have the money any more, or whatever other reason.
All the reasons I've seen posted why more people don't get into scuba diving are reasons a person doesn't get in once they learn about the details of scuba. New people aren't even getting that far to know ANYTHING about scuba. They're just flat not coming through the door into the dive shops to learn the first thing about the sport, so how would they even begin to know what it costs or what's involved?
The core problem lies in the fact that the sport is invisible to most people that aren't already somehow involved. There is nothing in the form of any awarness/ad campaigns, media stimulus, about diving to capture their interest to even inquire about it.
We can sit here and argue all day that the reason dive shops aren't making is is because they are more expensive than the internet and don't carry BP/W. That's not it, there aren't the people anymore to support it.
I know the world wide recession had a huge impact on diving and a lot of other leisure activities because people were just trying to survive.
But scuba had already stagnated and was showing signs of decline before that. Scuba is one of those specialty sports that requires a lot of commitment and water adaptability besides money. Not everybody likes the water. Harley's cost a lot of money too but I'm sure not seeing a decline in ownership or ridership.