Diving is becoming statistically safer, I believe. Despite a massively expanding diving population, the number of divers injured or killed per year has proportionally decreased.
I don't think think that this is supportable, either in terms of massive expansion or reduction of injury.
That fact alone doesn't justify a belief that the current training system is 'safer', as there are plenty of other factors involved. I believe one of those major factors is the changing nature of how divers conduct dives. Most modern 'McDivers' adhere to very conservative limits. Those limits (oft criticised) reflect a prudent and honest self-assessment by the agencies as to the training their courses provide. Likewise, most divers (the greater percentage of people receiving certifications who dive a few times a year, whilst on vacation) conduct all of their post-certification diving under the supervision and care of a diving professional.
My observations concur with yours. It is a shame, but if you never get out of bed the odds that you will be in a traffic accident are greatly reduced, and so is the life experience.
The imposition (and adherence to) conservative diving limits, plus the increase of supervised/professionally-led diving activities is a major shift from how newly qualified divers gained experience several decades ago (unsupervised, less limitations).
From what I've seen the segment of people who will ever in the life dive without supervision is dropping, thus much of diving has become more of an e-ticket Disney ride than part of a real, "Be A Diver" progression.
Add to that the proliferation in the use of diving aids, such as dive computers, and you decrease the potential for human error induced (novice) accidents still further.
DCS rates have not, as far as I know, significantly changed, BCs have not either, so I don't know what you are referring to.
In truth... we cater to the shareholders in the certification agencies.
NAUI, BSAC, and CMAS have no "shareholders."
Which doesn't explain the popularity of more committed training programmes, such as those offered by BSAC et al.
I can only address the demand for what I do, which more tracks the demographics of the families whose members I taught in the past than any other single predictor.
There's a considerable percentage of new divers who never dive beyond their initial certifying year. Outside of that percentage, there is a further grouping of divers who only conduct a lifetime total of 20-50 dives (averaging only a couple of dives per year whilst on vacation). A small percentage of divers develop the activity into their major hobby - those we can consider 'committed' or 'serious' divers. Within that small percentage, there is a tiny percentage of divers who progress to professional and/or technical levels.
I believe that less than 20% of the divers who are trained continue diving of any sort after their first set of "experiences."
Realistically, there'd be no long-term harm in developing more robust training courses, as the 'serious' divers would do this happily. The greater percentage of divers would be detered from qualification, but those people don't sustain in the activity anyway. They might as well just do a Discover Dive/s or a 'Scuba Diver' type of limited (supervision required) course - that is cheaper and more convenient anyway.
That would strike at the core of the "big lie" that the diving industry is based on, namely that by taking an OW course you are transformed into an explorer, an adventurer and a member of an exclusive club.
I don't think it matters what the stated goal is.... as long as the training provided does fit the stated goal.
At the moment, agencies claim to produce 'independent divers, capable of unsupervised diving to X, Y or X depths/conditions etc'. There is a discrepancy because they don't (IMHO) generally achieve that.
Correct.
Entry-level training is a relatively small factor in the dive industry machine. Profits and business demand arise from the serious divers - the ones who do multiple courses, who buy equipment, who do continuing education training, who take dive holidays.
No, business plans and thus profits are much more based on a high dropout rate. For a shop to survive they need to train on the order of 300 entry level students per year. I suspect that you will find that con ed and dives who buy additional gear such as dry suits, or scooters, or a second set of gear, are in the vast minority.
At the moment, the dive agencies create those 'serious' divers as a percentage probability from mass training at entry-level. Train 1000 OWs and you'll get 300 AOWs, and then get 100 RDs, and then get 10 DMs, and then get 2 OWSIs, and then get 1 Tech Diver... etc. With each progressive step of involvement, you get an associated increase in secondary spending... kit, vacations etc.
Your conversion ratios are rather high (1/3 moving on to AOW? 1/3 of the AOWs taking RD? I'd guess that a conversion rate of 10% might be optimistic), which only serves to point out how unimportant in the grand scheme of things the gross expenditures by tech divers and such are.
The dive industry profits more from 10 technical divers, than it does from 1000 open-water students. It creates the open-water students to feed future demand at a higher level.
That is simply not true. Do the math. 10 tech divers likely pump on the order of $100,000 into the industry while I'd guess that 1000 OW students pump more than $500,000 in.
In that respect, does it matter if 1000 students do a 3-day 'McDiver' course... or whether 200 students do a 2-week 'complete' course? If the dive industry felt that 200 students doing a 2-week course would produce more 'serious' (long-term/big-spender) divers, then that's what they'd go with.
No, the industry does not have enough quality instructors who will work for cheap to teach everyone two week courses, so too weak courses are the order of the day.
I'm not so sure about that. The 'industry' is a big and diverse one... and McDivers don't spend big bucks in that industry. A 'flash-in-the-pan' vacation diver has little long-term profitability for that industry.
What's more profitable? 100 divers spending $500 bucks.... or 10 divers spending $10,000 bucks?
If that were the ratio, it'd be about even, but I fear you are off by an order of magnitude at least.
For example, a moderately active technical diver would spend considerably more money just on gasses, than a sporadically active rescue diver spends in total on all their scuba-related activities. A single mixed-gas technical computer, costs more than the combined investment to complete OW, AOW and Rescue courses, plus a fair number of post-certification fun dives...
What you say is basically true. But ... there are too few techies out there and it is way too expensive and demanding to serve their needs. Far easier to crank out 300 OWs a year and convert as many as you can to AOW, RD, etc. To run a tech operation you need a much higher level of competence.
At the moment the industry profits from both. But really, I don't believe that setting lower goals, in line with currently low course standards, would harm that equation. A limited few would progress, most would fizzle out quickly. The difference between issuing a cert card that proclaimed you an 'independent diver' or a 'needs supervision diver' is irrelevant to the majority.
Agreed.
Same training, same cost, same convenience... just cut out the BS about being safe, alone, in the water after 3 days of basic tuition.
Yup.
The examples given are quite irrelevant, because the over-arching caveat of 'trained to dive within the limits of your experience' always applies. If you train in temperate waters, then you should be capable of diving in temperate waters. If you train in low viz/high current, then you should be capable of diving in low viz/high current.
A divers' training is only relevant to the conditions in which they train - it does not prepare them for specific factors unique to differing diving locations and conditions. Extra training is required for that.
But then one size does not fit all and you destroy the root lie that is seen as central to the sale of diving as a thing to do.