What if I/we test positive prior to return to the US?

[Outbound]

This is what I was getting at in a previous post. For many years I have self-insured--that is, borne all the financial risk--for most travel risks, including so-called Trip Interruption--because I felt I had an rough intuitive grasp of how "low" the probability of me getting stuck somewhere was and the costs I might have to bear. But for Covid, especially the more transmissible (how much more?!) variant(s), I just don't feel I have a reasonable grasp of the risk. Before the rise of Delta, experts told us (at least as I recall it) that the likelihood of transmission while walking past people on a sidewalk was so low that we didn't need to be concerned about it. Same for open-air dining with well-spaced tables. Now, they are saying Delta is much more transmissible, but I haven't heard any similar real-world examples, such as walking past people on a sidewalk or dining outside. So I don't know how to judge the new probabilities. As for the costs, an unexpected night in a hotel and dinner is one thing, but 10 days at whatever resort on Bonaire might be willing to put up quarantiners is another. Pre-covid, paying $100 for mainly a Trip Interruption benefit didn't seem worthwhile to me. Now?

I'm fairly confident that being vaxed, I wouldn't have any serious symptoms if I were to test positive. But, as I understand it, even vaxed people can contract enough virus to test positive.

All very true. One of the frustrating - but completely understandable - things about this pandemic has been the lack of (or sometimes moving) data/information about risk. It's not that "they" won't tell us, of course. It's because the studies take time to do, the methodologies need to be scrutinized, and the variants that have sprung up keep changing things more rapidly than the data flow can keep up. Unfortunately, there is no clear answer to what is a vaxxed person's risk of contracting COVID while in a place like Bonaire when all contact with strangers is either outdoors or while masked indoors. All we know is that it is pretty low, but not zero.

 

[Outbound]

For what it's worth, my sister, who is an epidemiologist, is heading to Aruba for a week later this month. She is vaccinated and takes all the necessary precautions. She plans on wearing a KN-95 while in the airport and on the plane. But she doesn't feel like the risk of contracting COVID while in Aruba, hanging out on the beach, and dining outdoors, is high enough to cancel her plans. And she was someone who went into deep lockdown during the bulk of the pandemic.

 

[Kimela]

This is what I was getting at in a previous post. For many years I have self-insured--that is, borne all the financial risk--for most travel risks, including so-called Trip Interruption--because I felt I had an rough intuitive grasp of how "low" the probability of me getting stuck somewhere was and the costs I might have to bear. But for Covid, especially the more transmissible (how much more?!) variant(s), I just don't feel I have a reasonable grasp of the risk. Before the rise of Delta, experts told us (at least as I recall it) that the likelihood of transmission while walking past people on a sidewalk was so low that we didn't need to be concerned about it. Same for open-air dining with well-spaced tables. Now, they are saying Delta is much more transmissible, but I haven't heard any similar real-world examples, such as walking past people on a sidewalk or dining outside. So I don't know how to judge the new probabilities. As for the costs, an unexpected night in a hotel and dinner is one thing, but 10 days at whatever resort on Bonaire might be willing to put up quarantiners is another. Pre-covid, paying $100 for mainly a Trip Interruption benefit didn't seem worthwhile to me. Now?

I'm fairly confident that being vaxed, I wouldn't have any serious symptoms if I were to test positive. But, as I understand it, even vaxed people can contract enough virus to test positive.

I hear ya! And I keep having the conversation with myself that begins with "on the one hand ... and then on the other hand ... and there are no other hands!". I still end up with "I don't know what to do". I had a false sense of security going to Cozumel, knowing the island better. But the reality was that even though I have some local friends, NOBODY is going to say "hey Kimela, why don't you and your covid-ridden husband come stay with us for 10 days!". Honest to goodness, I really do see a market for cheap hotels to open up as "Covid Hostels" during this period of time. They could charge $100 per person and provide the bare minimum in food and make a ton of money.

I may put together a spreadsheet of insurance policies to see what might be worth it. Ugh.

 

[Lorenzoid]

@Kimela , there are many places in the world with cheap hotels that usually have last-minute availability. Bonaire isn't one of them. Places book up way in advance, and few are what I'd call cheap. In somewhere like Playa del Carmen, a big town with all kinds of accommodations, I wouldn't be so concerned about draining my wallet (not to mention the food would be better in Mexico.)

From what I've been reading, if you test positive, you are put under the watch of the health authorities. I am hoping they or someone they refer people to might be able to do something to help find rooms to quarantine in.

Incidentally, some of the insurance policies require documentation of you personally being ordered to quarantine. I suspect the Bonaire health authorities do (or can) provide that.

 

[Outbound]

I hear ya! And I keep having the conversation with myself that begins with "on the one hand ... and then on the other hand ... and there are no other hands!". I still end up with "I don't know what to do". I had a false sense of security going to Cozumel, knowing the island better. But the reality was that even though I have some local friends, NOBODY is going to say "hey Kimela, why don't you and your covid-ridden husband come stay with us for 10 days!". Honest to goodness, I really do see a market for cheap hotels to open up as "Covid Hostels" during this period of time. They could charge $100 per person and provide the bare minimum in food and make a ton of money.

I may put together a spreadsheet of insurance policies to see what might be worth it. Ugh.

Looked at another way, your risk of contracting COVID in Missouri is currently much, much higher than it will be in Bonaire. First, you are vaccinated, reducing your risk of getting COVID by at least a factor of eight according to the latest CDC studies. Second, the current number of cases in Bonaire is low, and the CDC considers Bonaire a "Level 2: Moderate" risk for travel. Pretty much the entire US is at least a Level 3 or 4 right now, if the CDC were to impose levels for various states. Third, Bonaire requires testing before entry, thereby screening most (but not all) positives out before they even get on the plane with you. This doesn't address the flight to your connection to Bonaire, but you will be masked for all of that. Get a KN-95 if you can stand wearing one, or double mask with a surgical mask and a cloth mask on top. Fourth, you will be outdoors in Bonaire for virtually everything you do that requires contact with another human. And you can mask for at least some of those occasions if you like. I really think the risk is very, very, very low. However, the consequences could be quite costly, so I think that is what is most concerning. I can only speak for myself, but given the low risk, I have no problems moving forward with our current plans to travel to Bonaire in September.

 

[Lorenzoid]

I know, @Outbound , all of that has occurred to me, though I very much appreciate seeing it written out so well.

I am aware the CDC said the vaccine reduces one's "risk of getting COVID" by at least factor of eight, but it has never been clear to me whether that refers to COVID--the disease--or the virus (SARS-Cov-2) that causes COVID. I'm confident I won't "get COVID"--as in, I may not feel sick--but is that the same as saying it reduces my risk of testing positive for the virus by at least a factor of eight? I don't think so. And the Delta variant is a lot more transmissible than the original virus on which most of the current conclusions are based. For purposes of not being stuck in Bonaire, that's what concerns me.

 

[BRT]

I hear ya! And I keep having the conversation with myself that begins with "on the one hand ... and then on the other hand ... and there are no other hands!". I still end up with "I don't know what to do". I had a false sense of security going to Cozumel, knowing the island better. But the reality was that even though I have some local friends, NOBODY is going to say "hey Kimela, why don't you and your covid-ridden husband come stay with us for 10 days!". Honest to goodness, I really do see a market for cheap hotels to open up as "Covid Hostels" during this period of time. They could charge $100 per person and provide the bare minimum in food and make a ton of money.

I may put together a spreadsheet of insurance policies to see what might be worth it. Ugh.

I suspect that there are not enough covid quarentine cases to fill any sort of a hotel, and no one else would want to stay there.

 

[Outbound]

I know, @Outbound , all of that has occurred to me, though I very much appreciate seeing it written out so well.

I am aware the CDC said the vaccine reduces one's "risk of getting COVID" by at least factor of eight, but it has never been clear to me whether that refers to COVID--the disease--or the virus (SARS-Cov-2) that causes COVID. I'm confident I won't "get COVID"--as in, I may not feel sick--but is that the same as saying it reduces my risk of testing positive for the virus by at least a factor of eight? I don't think so. And the Delta variant is a lot more transmissible than the original virus on which most of the current conclusions are based. For purposes of not being stuck in Bonaire, that's what concerns me.

Good question regarding the 8-fold reduction factor. Given how the CDC is currently tracking breakthrough cases, I’m assuming that the reduction does not include completely asymptomatic cases. I could be wrong however. We can’t track what we don’t test for, and asymptomatic cases are typically caught, if at all, when someone is exposed to a known positive case.

But, travelers to Bonaire could take their entry test as late as possible (the ID Now results can be had quite quickly), and then take their US re-entry test as soon as the timeline permits. If staying in Bonaire for a week - Sat. to Sat. - that means test for entry late on Thursday or possibly even Friday, travel to Bonaire, antigen test on Tuesday and don’t worry anymore if negative. That leaves just three and a half days or so to remain COVID-free. I think that’s doable given how everything is outdoors there.

 

[Outbound]

Sorry, I meant Wednesday, not Tuesday. Wednesday would be the earliest you could take the antigen test for US re-entry if departing Bonaire on Saturday.