You mentioned an exhalation rate and an ascent distance capable of causing barotrauma, however, they must both be used together in order to get a proper potentially-limiting ascent rate. As I am a science nerd (with a degree in chemical engineering -- no c-card, but I got a nice paper), I guess I should give it a try instead of going to lunch... Okay, here goes.
Let's use your numbers and say that full-speed exhalation for a healthy person is 70% of lung volume in one second. We'll write that as 0.7 Lu/s (where Lu is our unit of volume, with 1 Lu equal to a full set of lungs). We'll assume that can be maintained at a constant rate (as we're "adding volume" due to the ascent).
Now, we need to figure out how fast we are adding volume. To do that, we write an equation for volume as a function of depth: V(d) = V
0 * (d + 33 fsw) / 33 fsw. We'll choose V
0 as 1 Lu (at zero depth). Then we differentiate this with respect to depth to get a nice little equation which I won't bother trying to type here, but it is obviously not a constant dV(d)/dd, as the rate of change of volume with respect to depth increases toward the surface. That being the case, the maximum rate of change is what we're looking for, so we evaluate the derivative at d = 0 fsw (the surface). From there, it is trivial to write the time rate of change of volume at the surface as a function of ascent rate.
(Edit: Okay, I won't. You'd fly about 8.2 feet up out of the water.)
We can now put these two halves together to get the limiting ascent rate such that there is zero net change in lung volume for the person exhaling at 0.7 Lu/s (the limiting exhalation rate). This gives 0.7 Lu / s = (1 Lu / 33 fsw) * (ascent rate). Solving for ascent rate, we find the ascent rate to be (0.7 * 33) fsw/s, i.e. 23 fsw/s.
At 23 fsw per second, or almost 1400 fsw per minute, even exhaling 0.7 Lu / s, you would not be able to keep up with the expansion of the air in your lungs by the time you reached the surface. If you use a less forceful 0.33 Lu / s, you're still looking at 10 fsw / second (600 fsw per minute), which is still way up there.
Of course, the rate of exhalation needed to maintain constant lung volume is significantly affected both by additional depth as well as current lung volume. The deeper you are, the lower your exhalation rate need be; the less air in your lungs to expand, the lower your exhalation rate need be. If you have only 0.5 Lu of air in your lungs at the time you break the surface, you could be ascending at twice the ascent rate without overexpansion.
So, to sum up, healthy people can exhale at significantly higher rates than the rates of volumetric expansion of air in their lungs for any achievable ascent rate, so they should be quite safe if they don't hold their breath. I'll leave the physics nerds the additional question of how high out of the water you'd fly, assuming a rigid body with no friction once in air, if you broke the surface at 23 feet per second.
Edit: Okay, I won't. You'd fly about 8.2 feet, or 2.5 meters, up out of the water... which could probably get you right up onto the deck for your emergency O2.
