Tropics

[ggunn]

It's probably not going to be a big deal for Cozumel, but there is a tropical wave in the Caribbean that at least deserves watching.

National Hurricane Center

 

[OregonDM]

Feels like it's been a pretty quiet year so far. There's still time though.

 

[ggunn]

Feels like it's been a pretty quiet year so far. There's still time though.

Yes, it has been a very quiet year, at least as far as storm landfalls are concerned. The high pressure heat dome that covered the SE US most of the summer as well of a few "cold" fronts kept the storms that did pop up spinning off to the NE in the Atlantic. The peak of hurricane season is well behind us now, but historically there have been a few storms that started up as late as December.

 

[ggunn]

It's still not a major cause for concern but the NHC just upgraded its 7 day forecast from 60% to 70% :

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Recent satellite wind data and surface observations indicate the
tropical wave currently crossing the Windward Islands still lacks a
closed circulation. However both radar and satellite images indicate
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is starting to show
signs of organization. The system is still moving quickly westward
at 20 to 25 mph, which could limit development over the next day or
so, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable as it slows down in the central Caribbean Sea by the
middle of this week. A tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle to latter portion of this week in the central Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected to continue for portions of the Windward and Leeward
Islands through Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

[Shawn C]

Formation chance now up to 50% in 48 hours 80% in 7 days... Definitely worth keeping an eye on though still too early to see where and what.

 

[ggunn]

Formation chance now up to 50% in 48 hours 80% in 7 days... Definitely worth keeping an eye on though still too early to see where and what.

It's up to 70% and 90% as of 2PM EDT on 10/20.

 

[ggunn]

It’s TS Melissa now and it is virtually stopped. The NHC shows it intensifying and drifting slowly northward, but when a storm stops it could go just about anywhere. Keep an eye on it.

 

[ggunn]

This morning the NHC is predicting that TS Melissa will make a sharp turn to the west over the weekend and that it will reach hurricane strength by Friday, so stay tuned.

 

[Shawn C]

That thing really doesn't know where it wants to go as it meanders around the Caribbean like a drunken sailor.

 

[ggunn]

Now (2PM EDT 10/22) the NHC shows it heading west as a major hurricane by Monday. Of course, that could all change again by tomorrow, but for now everyone on Cozumel should be watching it closely.