It's probably not going to be a big deal for Cozumel, but there is a tropical wave in the Caribbean that at least deserves watching.
Tropics
- Thread starter ggunn
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OP
Yes, it has been a very quiet year, at least as far as storm landfalls are concerned. The high pressure heat dome that covered the SE US most of the summer as well of a few "cold" fronts kept the storms that did pop up spinning off to the NE in the Atlantic. The peak of hurricane season is well behind us now, but historically there have been a few storms that started up as late as December.
OP
It's still not a major cause for concern but the NHC just upgraded its 7 day forecast from 60% to 70% :
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Near the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Recent satellite wind data and surface observations indicate the
tropical wave currently crossing the Windward Islands still lacks a
closed circulation. However both radar and satellite images indicate
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is starting to show
signs of organization. The system is still moving quickly westward
at 20 to 25 mph, which could limit development over the next day or
so, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable as it slows down in the central Caribbean Sea by the
middle of this week. A tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle to latter portion of this week in the central Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected to continue for portions of the Windward and Leeward
Islands through Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Near the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Recent satellite wind data and surface observations indicate the
tropical wave currently crossing the Windward Islands still lacks a
closed circulation. However both radar and satellite images indicate
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is starting to show
signs of organization. The system is still moving quickly westward
at 20 to 25 mph, which could limit development over the next day or
so, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable as it slows down in the central Caribbean Sea by the
middle of this week. A tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle to latter portion of this week in the central Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected to continue for portions of the Windward and Leeward
Islands through Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
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