What amazes me, is how the guides only need to be Full Cave certified to lead OW divers on these types of dives, personally, I feel it should be only cave instructors leading these dives, as they are trained to handle just about anything that may arise. Being certified Full Cave (and even an AOWSI), I am trained to solve many problems that can occur in a cave environment to get myself & my buddy (of equal or higher level than myself) out of a cave alive. We are equally aware of the risks we are taking. I realize that I am in no way qualified to handle a possibly panicked diver in that environment to bring them (& myself) out safely. When things go wrong, it is rarely only 1 thing, it is usually a cascading series of events that leads to a fatal event. Think of this scenario (I am in no way saying that this was what happened): Guided diver suddenly panics (remember when panic sets in, the diver most likely can only function in a survival mode, all higher functions are out the window) & tries to bolt in any direction, including up. They then spit their regulator out & put a fin in the silt. Now vis has gone from air clear to 0 in seconds. Where's the line? Now the nasty Halocline in that system isn't helping finding that line. Where is the other diver(s) being lead? Can I (as the guide) get them to the line & safely out? I can easily see where someone who isn't a cave instructor can quickly get overwhelmed by the situation.
Don't get me wrong,... I am sure there are excellent guides who are not cave instructors & have exemplary safety records, but is there a program there to teach these guides to handle those situations? Just putting in an observation.
I have followed this incident with interest and horror; my first cavern dive was at Chac Mool about 7 years ago as a fairly new diver, and I have done about ten other cenote cavern dives since, the most recent being 6 dives in 5 cenotes just this past February.
This event is terribly sad for these individuals and those who survive them. Clearly someone did something very very wrong as of yet it is not clear who or why.
But I would not be too quick to judge the safety of such dives in principle. Hundreds of daily cavern dives are conducted in the cenotes most days of the year - If the fact quoted from the S. Gerrard blog is correct, it suggests that on the whole, this has been a very safe practice one incident involving loss of life in probably tens or hundreds of thousands of such dives in perhaps 15 years. Just guessing here, and I dont imagine the data are collected, but
statistically these may be among the safer dives one could undertake compared with some average open water dive.
The water is warm, shallow, free of current, with little silt, mostly excellent visibility, with permanent guidelines and very clearly marked cavern limits, which are a maximum of 100 feet from open water (most of the cavern areas are much closer to open water). To enter the cave areas one must pass a Grim Reaper sign, and make a jump to the permanent cave line that is, in my experience, not visible from the cavern line. I have never seen any guide without doubles. I would not say that every set of doubles is full for every dive
but based on my air consumption my guess is that guides finish both dives with close to half their air remaining.
I would not wish to minimize the loss of life, which is always terrible, and I would not want to minimize the dangers of any overhead environment. But the most probable scenarios in this case involve choices (perhaps a rescue attempt of divers who, violating the principle rule of a cavern dive, intentionally left the cavern line or the almost unimaginable scenario of a guide leading untrained and unequipped clients into the cave system) that do not reflect on the basic safety of such diving.
-Seth