Snuba in Cozumel?

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Your point about a large sample size is absolutely true. But just what constitutes a sufficiently large sample size depends upon the probabilities involved. For tossing a fair coin, where the odds are 50:50, a sample size of 1,000 is plenty large enough for the probabilities to emerge from any statistical anomolies. But for a much less likely event, like winning the Power Ball Lottery, where the odds of getting all 5 numbers plus the Power Ball are about 1 in 274 Million, a much, much larger sample size is required. The Power Ball Jackpot has gotten as high as $1.5 Billion, and with a payout of only about 50%, and chances costing $2, that means that more than 1.5 Billion tickets were sold, in the aggregate, over several drawings, before there was a winning combination sold. And in that case, there were 5 winners. In Lotto games, we can calculate the odds precisely because of the nature of the game - pure random number selection. But even a sample size which is about 6 times the calculated odds against (274 million x 6) may be necessary before a positive outcome appears.

With a sample size of 5,000,000 Snuba experiences, all we can say with any confidence is that the odds of an injury are probably (with about a 95% confidence) less than 1:1,000,000. And even with that big a sample size, there is still a non-zero chance (though very, very small) that the odds might be as high as 1:500,000.
Yeah, I've taken a couple of senior level collegiate stats classes, too, though they weren't the most enjoyable courses for me. :D

What I would look at first is the veracity of the data, i.e., who's collecting it and if they have a vested interest in it.
 
If there are none or almost no reported expansion injuries on snuba and the number is correct of over 5,000,000 dives on it since inception that's less than a 1 in 5,000,000 chance of a problem. Contrast that with

The odds of becoming a lightning victim in the U.S. in any one year is 1 in 700,000, odds of being struck by lightning twice in your lifetime are 1 in 9 million

Your odds of being struck by lightning twice are small over a lifetime but once they are far better than you think... just 1 in 12,000. Next time you're in a football stadium that holds 100,000 (thinking Ohio State Buckeyes horseshoe stadium) realize that 8 of the people in there watching the game with you have been or will be struck by lightning. Kinda spooky when you think about it... Not that anyone should live in fear of being struck by lightning but most people also know not to run around a golf course waving a 9-iron during a thunderstorm.

Isn't stuffing a SNUBA reg in an 8-year old's mouth and saying "Have Fun!" kinda like handing him a golf cub during a thunderstorm?
 
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If there are none or almost no reported expansion injuries on snuba and the number is correct of over 5,000,000 dives on it since inception that's less than a 1 in 5,000,000 chance of a problem."

Let's re-focus on the topic at hand. I think the reported SNUBA safety record would be far different if all 5,000,000 SNUBA dives to date (or however many) had been performed by 8-year olds (that is what we're talking about - not SNUBA but the risk SNUBA may present to an 8-year old.

What would the results be if you handed 5,000,000 8-year olds loaded hand guns after giving them a 15 minute course on gun safety?
 
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Let's re-focus on the topic at hand. I think the reported SNUBA safety record would be far different if all 5,000,000 SNUBA dives to date (or however many) had been performed by 8-year olds (that is what we're talking about - not SNUBA but the risk SNUBA may present to an 8-year old.

What would the results be if you handed 5,000,000 8-year olds loaded hand guns after giving them a 15 minute course on gun safety?
That's pretty much what I was saying as well. Before you apply statistics to the the data, you should vett the data. Garbage in, garbage out.
 
Pressure increases linearly with depth, one atmosphere for every 33 feet, approximately.

You are correct, sir, but you know what I meant :)

True, but the greatest PERCENTAGE increase, on a per foot basis, is near the surface. Since volume of a gas is inversely proportional to pressure, a 33% decrease in pressure, going from about 16 feet (1.5 atm) to the surface (1 atm) results in a 50% increase in volume. But going from 33 feet (2.0 atm) to 16 feet (1.5 atm) is only a 25% decrease in pressure, and only a 33% increase in air volume. So the closer to the surface a diver is, the greater the percentage change in both pressure and gas volume for every foot of change in depth. It's not the absolute pressure that is dangerous, it is the Delta V - the rate of change in Volume of air expressed as a percentage. And that percentage rate of change function is NOT linear.

Thank you making my point much clearer for the nit-pickers :)

You wonder how someone's life really is going when they feel the need to attack on Social Media, or chat rooms. As I was saying 33 feet is a full atmosphere. SNUBA is about getting people introduced to diving. I'm sure your boy will love it. I'll leave it to the Jac Cousteau's on this blog to criticize that too.

If you're truly a Padi Pro, you might want to rethink your career choice before you get someone killed. You're obviously not qualified for your chosen field, as this statement is as incorrect as your previous one.
 
Isn't stuffing a SNUBA reg in an 8-year old's mouth and saying "Have Fun!" kinda like handing him a golf cub during a thunderstorm?

What would the results be if you handed 5,000,000 8-year olds loaded hand guns after giving them a 15 minute course on gun safety?

Both of your comments make the assumption that snuba training is either deficient when it addresses younger users or that younger users aren't capable of grasping the training that is provided. However, but again the reported data doesn't back up either of your assumptions as again in 5,000,000 dives, those obviously include the full range of approved ages of users and if 8 year olds are approved to use snuba there are obviously 8 year olds contributing to those dive totals, and yet again, still not any reporting of any significant number of expansion injuries at all, in any ages. You can shake and bake it however you want, but as I said it has to come down to one of two things - either the expansion injuries are not being reported by the snuba operators, or the risks you're wanting to be attached to snuba are not being backed up by the statistical evidence.
 
Hi DavidNDC,

I actually work at a dive center where SNUBA is incorporated and I actually find it extremely easy for younger divers to get involved with diving at an earlier age through this program. It's actually really cool because the youths that we take out on SNUBA dives typically come back and get certified when they become of age, which appears to be the goal of the folks over at SNUBA International. I've brought it to the attention of the president of SNUBA my concerns over previously talked about lung over expansion and there has never been one case ever reported which is pretty astonishing for a company that's been around for 30 years. Probably for the fact that your not even at one atmosphere it's relatively safe. I fully recommend getting your little guy involved with SNUBA and get him comfortable with breathing compressed air under water so he can get his certs done when he's of age! Hope this helped. Have a great time in Mexico!

Regards,

You have GOT to be kidding me! What a disgrace and embarrassment you are to PADI and to our profession - this is BASIC OW material that you as a PRO should know in your sleep!!! The first 30 (33) feet are the most dangerous part of the dive as the greatest pressure change occurs in the first atmosphere. This is reckless and negligent information and should be IGNORED and you should be reported to PADI!! As your profile states that you are a young 28 years old - I am guessing you came out of one of the "zero to hero" programs which are also a disgrace to this industry!
 
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Hey All,

As an update we just got back from my trip this past weekend. My (adult) daughter and I had an absolutely amazing time diving with Dive Palancar. We did 6 dives total all with a private DM -- Jorge who was awesome! This was my 1st trip to Cozumel and most certainly won't be my last!

We decided to play it safe with the boy and stuck with snorkeling around the resort, off one of the Fury catamarans and a visit to Stingray Beach. He had a blast and continues to look forward to getting just a bit older so he can join in on the fun on future trips.

In the meantime, when I go to my LDS next week to drop my gear off for some warranty work, I'll enroll him into the Bubblemaker Course so he can learn and get introduced to the world of SCUBA diving in a more controlled and formal environment.

Thanks again for all the feedback and interesting discussion.

-David
 
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