Info SCTLD closures on Bonaire

[Charred]

Dont confuse their country, their rules with bad science. I've never commented on the rules only the psuedo-science they are using. I was being polite calling it psuedo-science. Does bad science sound better?

"STINAPA says the spread was slowed." Based on what data? Uncontrolled rinse tanks and an honor system where people could or could not disinfect? A 10 sec dunk or 5 minutes? People may or may not be following the red, orange, green codes.

I was there in May and watched most people not following any of the guidelines. So "STINAPA says the spread was slowed". Well what slowed it? The X% of people that followed the guidelines correctly? The Y% of people that partially followed the guidelines? The Z% of the people that didn't follow the guidelines at all? BTW, I followed the rules out of respect for their country, their rules.

Many here are failing to see the bigger picture. If the randomly controlled rinsing procedures had an impact, then surely it implies divers are the spread of the disease, right? Maybe we should shut down Caribbean diving down until it passes? Or you need to have your dive gear professionally sanitized for $100 before being allowed to dive on an island and again at the end of the day. Since Bonaire showed it was effective, let's do it everywhere. Maybe only certain brands are good? I heard Scubapro as a new special coating for their BCDs that prevents spread. Maybe everyone should only dive those BCDs? And on and on...

As they say, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. STINPA should be applauded for trying something. But to argue it had an impact is laughable. Cozumel closed whole dive sites and it had no impact. If divers were spreading the disease and STINPA had evidence of this, than they should have shut down all diving and put even stronger measures in place as they did by closing all the Northern sites. Wait, did STINAPA just leaving diving in place when it had evidence divers spread this? In order to sustain the economy? Whoa. I can't believe they did that! Its fun just making stuff up. Maybe I am in the wrong field?

I have a PhD in Biochemistry and routinely peer review science articles for a living. I am certainly not a marine biologist and don't review those articles but I do understand the fundamentals of experimental design. Looking forward to reading this ground breaking STINAPA study in Nature. YMMV.

 

[tursiops]

Many here are failing to see the bigger picture. If the randomly controlled rinsing procedures had an impact, then surely it implies divers are the spread of the disease, right?

Jumping to a conclusion much? You seem to think that there must just be one contributing factor to the disease spread. Why not many factors, some major, some minor? Not all in play at once, or on every island, or even on every part of Bonaire.

"STINAPA says the spread was slowed." Based on what data?

Why don't you ask them?

As they say, the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Are you referring to your post?

STINPA should be applauded for trying something.

Compare their efforts with MOST Caribbean islands.

If divers were spreading the disease and STINPA had evidence of this,

STINAPA had no such evidence and never said they did. All they've said is that divers might be contributing, so let's see if we can mitigate that a bit. It is a precautionary measure, not science.

I have a PhD in Biochemistry and routinely peer review science articles for a living.

I also have a PhD in the sciences and review articles, but that is also irrelevant to STINAPA's goals and actions and conclusions. This is not science dude, get over it.

 

[Lorenzoid]

Dont confuse their country, their rules with bad science. I've never commented on the rules only the psuedo-science they are using. I was being polite calling it psuedo-science. Does bad science sound better?

I didn't confuse them. Rather, I too was being polite in phrasing my response to your post, as I alluded to when tursiops noted that what you more probably meant was indeed, "bad science."

So, it seems you have the "purely academic" interest in this that I mentioned might be the only reason to debate it. When I referred to "their country, their rules," I meant only that it's useless as a practical matter for us as visiting (or not visiting) divers to debate the basis for their mitigation measures here in the Bonaire forum. As I said, there are rules in many countries that are baseless in my opinion, but it's useless as a practical matter for us as travelers to debate their merits in a travel forum.

If you and tursiops want to have an academic debate over the science, "good" or "bad," have at it. Oh, and please keep it polite, you scientists.

 

[NDL_Diver]

Updates to https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/...d5b16&extent=-68.8017,11.9105,-67.4545,12.493
have slowed way down. It has been 3 weeks since last update (This seems like long time for a fast moving disease). We used to get them weekly. With so many Red sites it should be easier to monitor the Green sites. Yellow is just as bad as Red, IMHO, since it is present and spreading. Disinfecting gear to dive in an infected area seems to be a waste of resources. I have seen Yellow sites that should have been Red when I visited in August (again IMHO). It may be time to circle the wagons on the green sites.

 

[tursiops]

Updates to https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/...d5b16&extent=-68.8017,11.9105,-67.4545,12.493
have slowed way down. It has been 3 weeks since last update (This seems like long time for a fast moving disease). We used to get them weekly. With so many Red sites it should be easier to monitor the Green sites. Yellow is just as bad as Red, IMHO, since it is present and spreading. Disinfecting gear to dive in an infected area seems to be a waste of resources. I have seen Yellow sites that should have been Red when I visited in August (again IMHO). It may be time to circle the wagons on the green sites.

I queried STINAPA on this last Saturday. It is possible they don't care; I think it is more likely they are overwhelmed.

 

[NDL_Diver]

I queried STINAPA on this last Saturday. It is possible they don't care; I think it is more likely they are overwhelmed.

I don't believe they don't care but it may be getting more toward a white flag moment (close to every open site infected at some level). They tried to slow the progression but no-one will ever know how successful they have been.

It would be interesting to see at some point the reporting of sites that were closed to divers (off limit area north of Karpata)and how successful that effort was.

 

[tursiops]

I don't believe they don't care but it may be getting more toward a white flag moment (close to every open site infected at some level). They tried to slow the progression but no-one will ever know how successful they have been.

It would be interesting to see at some point the reporting of sites that were closed to divers (off limit area north of Karpata)and how successful that effort was.

My guess (I'm a physical oceanographer) is those northern site may escape the SCTLD because the currents from the infected southern sites do not wrap around the island. The north lives in a different current regime. I hope that green sites there is not interpreted as meaning it was the diver restrictions that saved them. Those restrictions may help, but they are not the fundamental reason the site are green (if they are!).

 

[NDL_Diver]

My guess (I'm a physical oceanographer) is those northern site may escape the SCTLD because the currents from the infected southern sites do not wrap around the island. The north lives in a different current regime. I hope that green sites there is not interpreted as meaning it was the diver restrictions that saved them. Those restrictions may help, but they are not the fundamental reason the site are green (if they are!).

Interesting, I am guessing that the far South site have a current that wraps around from East side also. The middle of the island on West side (in my simplistic thinking) is in a tug of war between those two (far North/South) currents and that is why we get current that runs North sometimes or South sometimes based upon wind speed, direction and tide. Again, just my thoughs since you peaked my interest.

 

[tursiops]

I queried STINAPA re there not having been an update of their ArcGIS map of infected sites (the green, yellow, red map) since Sept 27, i.e. 4 weeks ago.
Their response? No changes, "it remains the same."
This is a little hard to believe.....so I'm guessing the spectrum includes:
(a) no changes
(b) small changes not worth reporting
(c) no new observations hence no changes seen, thus nothing to report
(d) conflicting information with no way to rationalize and report it
(e) it is so bad that reporting it would just be depressing
(f) governmental/tourist-board/dive-operators have requested STINAPA to stop making Bonaire look bad
(g) the precautionary game is over, but no conclusion on how to report that the island is effectively red
etc

Alternatives a and b seem unlikely, given the rate of changes prior to Sept 27.
c is possible, especially given the recent attention being given to bleaching
d and e are possible
f has some likelihood, but STINAPA is usually pretty autonomous.
g is possible.

No information like this makes it difficult for folks to decide whether to go to Bonaire or not.

I have two more pieces of information I'm waiting for from Bonaire and will report any status change.

 

[tursiops]

I have two more pieces of information I'm waiting for from Bonaire and will report any status change.

One piece of new info suggests alternative f above -- outside pressure on STINAPA -- is not the case;, that all that is going on or not going on is due solely to STINAPA.