As long as we are speculating here, I'd like to toss something out.
For what it's worth, I have no experience with the Inspiration, and VERY limited experience with some other units. I did get a quick lesson on rescuing a diver on a KISS prior to my first mixed OC/CCR dive.
Configuration:
If the diver required significant weight to dive with the unit, it would stand to reason that he was successful in his descent, thus the weight would have been in place.
It is also concievable that the diver would have chosen a wing with enough positive buoyancy to float the unit and the diver, sans ditched weight.
Open Circuit bailout bottle chosen would need to be enough to allow diver to solve immediate issue at depth, and then make a controlled ascent. Since adequate gas was still in the bailout bottle we can probably assume the volume of gas was sufficient.
Possible Malfunction:
With the mentioned problems of the mouthpiece, it is likely that either the loop was compromised or sufficient flow was not making it to support breathing as depth increased. So it is possible the diver bailed to the bottle, and then the loop flooded. What is curious is that his buddy saw him switch to the bail bottle, saw him ascend, then saw him "swim" or perhaps drift to toward the boat. What was NOT mentioned was that his buddy saw him ditch the weight, which would have been a farily memorable occurance.
Speculation:
For this to have gone as wrong as it did, it seems several factors were involved. One, is why he bailed off the RB. If he was not getting good breaths, it would explain it. If the loop flooded immediately, it would also explain it. It is possible that if the loop flooded immediately, it seemingly possible it could have compromised his lungs to the degree that he couldn't metabolize (enough) oxygen especially as he got shallow.
We could also speculate that the wing selected was not of sufficient lift to get him truly onto the surface with a flooded RB. This miscalculation would have left him unable to inspire, and would have caused drowning. His being neutral just below the surface would indicate the wing was CLOSE to getting him there, but not close enough.
The oxygen cells would have become unimportant once he was on the bailout. So it seems unlikely he would have been hypoxic. He had the wherewithall to shut down the RB and begin an ascent.
As for lessons to take from this (poignant for me as I hope to dive a RB one day) it seems he had a known issue with the breathing portion of the apparatus. (Red Flag) It appears that he did not attempt to test the unit in the shallows with assistance close at hand. (Red Flag 2). It is not known whether this was the first or second dive of the day. If it was the first, Murphy was knocking HARD, but it would also indicate that the problem with the unit was pre-exisiting, and ignored. If it was the second, or subsequent, it would appear the problem developed on dive 1.
It would be interesting to know the state of his lungs on autopsy. Whether they were damaged at all or if cause of death was fixed at drowning. Seems hard to imagine a simple drowning when he was still on OC with air in the tank.
Anyway, that's my thoughts. Thanks for posting the information.