Risk perception

[captain]

This is a follow up to the thread Unbelievable Video. How do we perceive risk.
Same kid, different situations. Rate them as to greatest risk to least risk.

1- Riding a bike on city streets with friends
2- Riding behind his father on the father's motorcycle
3- Playing organized football
4- Riding a dirt motorcycle or 4 wheeler in the woods
5- Diving with his father as in video

 

[ZzzKing]

I'd rank them 54312 from least to most risky although 3 and 4 could possibly trade places depending on how hard the kid rides. In 1 and 2 you've got absolutely no control over who else is on the streets with you.

Interesting question.

 

[sabbath999]

I can't answer your questions without more information... before y'all see this as a copout, I would need to know several things... I am just going to take the first two as an example of what I mean.

1) What kind of city street... we talking downtown Manhattan or a suburban neighborhood. Is the kid and his friends riding bikes that fit them, are they wearing helmets... is it daylight, and if so is it during a time when traffic is heavy. Is the kid wearing something dark? I am a cyclist, and I know that there is a HUGE difference in the amount of safety depending on the traffic levels/patterns, time of day, safety equipment, etc.

2) How long has the father owned the motorcycle. Is he somebody who has been riding one for years or did he just buy it last week. The safety level of motorcycles increases greatly as riders become more experienced. Are they wearing helmets? Are they wearing leathers. Are they riding on the interstate, or on a quiet suburban street. What speed are they going? Is it rush hour.

I could go on and on about all of these questions, but you get the point. Many things are much more dangerous depending on how and where they are done, and whether they are using the proper equipment that fits them. There is no blanket "riding a motorcycle" or "riding a bicycle" or 4 wheeler in the woods... people with training and experience can do all three quite safely as long as they don't act like idiots and do something stupid... or they can do something really stupid and get themselves hurt within seconds of starting the activity.

Your sig says "Nothing is foolproof to a sufficiently talented fool" and that pretty well sums up my response to your question... all of these activities can be quite dangerous or quite safe, depending on training, temperament, equipment and training... and without knowing what those variables are, I don't think your question can be answered in any meaningful way.

 

[dkktsunami]

The kid in the video appeared to be very comfortable with his situation and responding to signals appropriately. Obviously not something for everyone. I have a grand daughter who is a "water baby" and would much rather have her with me in shallow water than on the back of a motor cycle in traffic. I have not done this but it might happen someday.

 

[Dr Neil]

To do a risk assessment one needs to know the variables.

Yes others (including myself) jumped to conclusions upon watching the video. But how many activities sour when the unexpected happens?

 

[captain]

I can't answer your questions without more information... before y'all see this as a copout, I would need to know several things... I am just going to take the first two as an example of what I mean.

1) What kind of city street... we talking downtown Manhattan or a suburban neighborhood. Is the kid and his friends riding bikes that fit them, are they wearing helmets... is it daylight, and if so is it during a time when traffic is heavy. Is the kid wearing something dark? I am a cyclist, and I know that there is a HUGE difference in the amount of safety depending on the traffic levels/patterns, time of day, safety equipment, etc.

2) How long has the father owned the motorcycle. Is he somebody who has been riding one for years or did he just buy it last week. The safety level of motorcycles increases greatly as riders become more experienced. Are they wearing helmets? Are they wearing leathers. Are they riding on the interstate, or on a quiet suburban street. What speed are they going? Is it rush hour.

I could go on and on about all of these questions, but you get the point. Many things are much more dangerous depending on how and where they are done, and whether they are using the proper equipment that fits them. There is no blanket "riding a motorcycle" or "riding a bicycle" or 4 wheeler in the woods... people with training and experience can do all three quite safely as long as they don't act like idiots and do something stupid... or they can do something really stupid and get themselves hurt within seconds of starting the activity.

Your sig says "Nothing is foolproof to a sufficiently talented fool" and that pretty well sums up my response to your question... all of these activities can be quite dangerous or quite safe, depending on training, temperament, equipment and training... and without knowing what those variables are, I don't think your question can be answered in any meaningful way.

Good points but it brings us the the criticism in the video thread. All we know is what we see, the father may or may not be an instructor, commercial diver, navy diver, have 30 years experience and thousands of dives, etc or not. It may have been the 50th time the kid did it and every time he and his father practice skills or not. Until we do know it is impossible to make a judgment.

 

[J.R.]

... why does the phrase, "It's all fun and games until somebody sits on the firecoral." come to mind?

I think the problem is, as the Captain suggests, PARTLY a perception issue. Any given select set of peremeters can be created to make anything "hazardous"... and how far we're inclined to allow or disallow public opinion to impact on our own assessment of hazard. "Hazardous" is also greatly influenced by our own knowledge and skill level...

But the issue isn't, in the case of the kid, so much one of the actual hazard but what 'society' (or any particular subset thereof) chooses to precieve it as. When I started my DM one of my biggest "fears" was dealing with the certification... no matter how limited, of 10 year olds. I have no kids... my *perception* of them is often less than favorable... Since I've worked with a few though my perception has changed... the three (small sample, I know...) I've worked with have shown amazing control... of course, I haven't seen them in a crisis situation... but then, you don't really know what most adults would do in that situatation...

The think I've come to realize is that my preception of risk with regard to these young folks is much more colored by my own fear than anything else. I have a great fear of having to deal with the consequnces of an injured or dead child... and balancing that with the impact a similar situation involving an adult would have with me. I find it easier to *accept* a traumatic situation involving an adult than I do a child. Why? Who knows... maybe its because "adults are supposed to be able to deal with it and work from an informed basis"... maybe its because I feel, like many, that kids are 'innocents' who live ther life without real comprehension (NOT true... I know... but hey... I said I didn't have any kids)...

Now... balance this with some of the stuff you see kids doing OUTSIDE of the womb of the US and it becomes easier to see kids as being able to bring much more to the table than our culture would like to believe they can...

... so, as for me... the issue isn't one of the child's competence... it's my own. My own education continues...

 

[tkdgodess]

1. Riding a bike on city streets with friends. MY city streets? Yes.
2- Riding behind his father on the father's motorcycle Yes. I STILL do this!
3- Playing organized football. Yes or Taekwondo.
4- Riding a dirt motorcycle or 4 wheeler in the woods. Only supervised, and not a 4 wheeler.
5- Diving with his father as in video. No. With own scuba equipment Yes.

I think the ONLY thing that Dad was doing wrong was not providing his son with his own scuba unit. Dad should be reenforcing GOOD diving habits. Ever play with your Dad's gun when you weren't supposed to? Tempted yes, friends bugged me to look at his guns, but I didn't. I was taught to respect the safety aspect of my father firearms, as well as the time & place to fire them. I would be concerned that this kid has learned it is OK to go to depth sharing a single scuba unit, and take one of his friends. That's a problem for me.

 

[J.R.]

I would be concerned that this kid has learned it is OK to go to depth sharing a single scuba unit, and take one of his friends. That's a problem for me.

Just out of curiosity... why is it we manufacture bad scenrios and then *assume* that "the other guy" will be irresponsible enough to fullfil them??? I'm not trying to put tkgodess on the spot in any way... but this seems to be a natural tendancy in our society in general... (... but, in the 'scenario creation' mode... I'm bettin' the reason junior doesn't have his own unit is because he really isn't being taught how to DIVE... he's being taught water skills... and from the way he bears himself, I'd say he's been pretty well taught.)

 

[tkdgodess]

Why not educate the kid as to DIVING skills instead of "water skills?" I don't see the point of this playing water skills. I don't think I've manufactured that far-fetched of a scenerio. Why not set your kids up for knowledge and success instead of short changing them by breathing off of Dad's octo. If you think he skills are pretty well taught, he ought to be able to use his own unit.

Kids CAN learn buoyancy control and all open water diving concepts. I recently certified a 12 year old girl, and did a DSD with over 65 kid (not all by myself, a group of us did).

Kids do stupid crap. I have one. I was one. I assume the worst, but teach the best I can.