halocline
Contributor
What you fail to address is the issue that is much more important to me than running out of air. I watch my tank pressure religiously, and very much doubt I'll ever face an OOA emergency. But even with regular equipment servicing as recommended by the equipment manufacturers, it's possible for things to break. If one's regulator 1st stage fails with ample air remaining in your primary tank, even your octopus will be useless. That's when you'll be glad to have a pony.
I've already decided that, for me, the "Spare Air" systems don't have enough capacity.
At least 90% of regulator problems involve leaking or freeflow, not sudden loss of air. Remember that the regulator does not supply air, it merely regulates the flow from the tank. This is especially true with the 1st stage. The rare problems that might interfere with being able to get air are typically 2nd stage issues, like a torn diaphragm that allows the stage to flood. That's one reason for an alternate 2nd stage.
The likelihood of a sudden loss of air due to regulator failure is probably much lower than any number of other dangers that would require assistance from a buddy, such as entanglement, sudden medical problem, severe fatigue or anxiety, etc....all of these factors basically point to the safety of diving with a good buddy. And if you have a good, trusted buddy, you have your redundant air source. If you don't, and you're trying to at least in part compensate for that by carrying a pony, you're still endangered by all of the other things I mentioned.
I'm certainly not accusing you of doing anything like substituting a pony for a buddy, but clearly many new divers who feel they are significantly increasing their safety by carrying a pony are simply mistaken. And that's the problem with them for new divers, it can create a false sense of security.
I carry a 13cft pony on recreational dives occasionally, I'm not "against ponies" in general. But, I know exactly why I have it, and I would not put my life in it's hands; I'm using it to allow for a more leisurely trip to the surface in cases of unexpected air loss on deep, repetitive dives, often with lots of unknown divers around, where I do not under any circumstance want to shorten my safety stop. The Texas Flower Gardens is a perfect example; 5 dives/day, all of them 70-80ft at least.