One of the problems with rule of thirds is that it can be both ludicrously conservative, or ludicrously aggressive.... depending on depth, time, type of dive.
Understood -- and agreed. And actually the process you describe is similar to the one I used to settle on a 19 for myself.
However, over the years the question of pony size seems to come up again and again. For one reason or another, not everyone seems prepared to delve into that level of detail. I was just trying to think of a shortcut 'rule-of-thumb'. Basing it on the size of the main tank seems to be a way of automatically sizing the pony as the size of the main tank limits the depth and duration of the dive, which in turn is the basis for the size of the pony.
Now, as you pointed out, the first step in the traditional dive planning stage calculates a minimum gas reserve (NASDS called it the "minimum turn pressure", but the meaning is clearly the same) for two divers to safely return (if necessary), ascend, and complete a safety stop. Similarly, application of the 'rule of thirds' is most often associated with technical diving evolutions that involve pairs or teams. So my suggestion may well be somewhat extravagant when applied to solo excursions in a rec diving environment (of course, where air is concerned I'm a firm believer that carrying too much is better than carrying too little <lol>)
Anyway, to put the application to the test, here are some numbers, assuming an RMV of .65 and a typical S80 (actually 77.8 cu ft). I'm allowing a 5 minute reserve at maximum depth to deal with an unexpected problem that necessitated an assent and a clear overhead, allowing a direct assent to the surface, and calculating for a solo diver -- ie, no reserve for a buddy. The SAC works out to about 25 psi/min.
At two atmospheres, 5 minutes burns 250 psi. Ascent to the safety stop uses another 25. The safety stop is 125, for a total of about 500 psi or 12.96 cu. ft. So for the person tooling around at 30 feet, a 13 cu. ft. pony is probably adequate.
At the other end of the rec spectrum, 4 atm, 5 minutes burns 750 psi. Ascent to the safety stop uses another 150 psi and then the 125 for the safety stop itself for a total of 1025 psi or approximately 26.8 cu. ft. That's not far off the 1/3 mark of the S80 main tank and it assumes the diver did not incur a deco obligation during that 5 minutes of dealing with the problem.
Now, obviously every situation is different. Big guys tend to use more air, out of shape people tend to use more air, stressed people tend to use more air and even just working harder (maybe during that 5 minutes dealing with the emergency?) will cause someone to use more air. But then too, people who use more air are apt to carry bigger main tanks. Smaller tanks tend to be popular with smaller individuals -- who tend to use less air. And not every dive is down to 100 feet.
So, while it is undoubtedly in a diver's best interest to fine tune the equations to suit their personal situation, saying that -- as a general rule of thumb to cover most situations -- a pony should be at least 1/3 the size of the main tank is not an unreasonable statement, IMHO. But that's just my 2¢.