I agree with @AggieDiver , take the AA to GCM. That's the safest. I've done it and yes having to recheck bags is a pain but at least you'll be there in time for the flight. Re the 5pm flight, I agree with what @tridacna has said but I've never had it cancel on me so I guess I'm lucky. On one occasion, in 2018 I think, they flew me over to LYB even though I was literally the only passenger!