Oil Spill Prediction

[Alex777]

The U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has released a prediction, based upon a computer model, of which countries and areas are likely to be affected by the BP oil spill. The model covers a 4-month period and predicts that oil will not come anywhere near the Cayman Islands. Here is the model graphic:

 

[Drew Sailbum]

Absolutely.

The Caribbean Basin has stable currents which would tend to prevent the oil from making it anywhere south of the Greater Antilles.

Trade winds push water from the tropical Atlantic into the Eastern Caribbean. Eventually this water flows northward out of the Caribbean through concentrated currents such as that between the Pinar del Rio province of Cuba (western tip of Cuba) and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

For oil to make it into the Caribbean basin it would have to float against a strong current and prevailing winds for many miles. That is very unlikely to happen.