The human brain works very hard at being an effective but efficient prediction machine. However, we can only predict against what we have perceived (different to seeing, hearing, feeling) and then matching it against previous patterns which we have encountered. If this involves a level of uncertainty, we subconsciously trade-off benefits against losses/gains and execute the action. We then monitor that change to see if it matches our patterns and we carry on. However, we are subject to confirmation bias (if we think something is going to happen, we look for evidence to confirm that and once we find it, we are happy, even if that evidence is extremely tenuous).
Calling someone stupid does nothing to help the learning because it stops the conversation which starts with 'how did it make sense for you to do that?'. If we have experiences (mental models) which are different to the subject, then, of course, we have different predictions. Outcome bias changes those models too. If nothing bad happened when we did something 'stupid', then we have created a model that says it won't always go wrong. The more we validate that model by doing the same activity and nothing bad happening, the more we believe we are right. Hindsight bias also influences analysis. If we know the outcome, we can spot the salient cues in the activity as it leads to disaster. This is what sets apart an expert from a novice, but even experts make mistakes...
Aviation is as safe as it is because aircrew, engineers and ATC personnel know that they can talk about their failures, mistakes AND violations safe in the knowledge that learning will take place and blame will not be attributed (with the exception of willful negligence and sabotage). Diving has a very long way to go to remove the judgemental attitudes which reduce learning across the community. If you've never made a mistake and done something 'stupid' (in hindsight), you are lying. Everyone makes mistakes and breaks the rules because there are always competing goals in our life.
You might find this clip useful to watch.
More than happy to take this into another thread if you (Mods) want.
Regards
Gareth
