Thanks for the input. Glad to see there's a consensus!
To clarify a little on things here: steel tanks are rare. Surface conditions are generally pretty calm but there are of course exceptions. The vast majority of divers are in jacket type BCDs rather than BP/Ws.
How much does wing lift relate to lift out of the water on the surface? Isn't that more a function of the shape of the wing and how it sits on you rather than the amount of lift available? How could I optimise this (even with a larger wing, for example in choppy surface conditions)?
I'm struggling to see the benefit of a steel backplate in my situation. I may well be negative with a steel BP, so in case of a wing failure I become the worst case scenario for rescue by a buddy - no ditchable weight and negative. In any case a lot of diving here would be accessed by flight so a lighter rig is definitely preferable for me.
Valid points on both sides of the wing size argument it would seem. If the Apeks W30 was available I'd definitely go for that, but unfortunately that's not likely to be available any time soon according to the distributor. The Mares XR single backmount set seems to be the next best thing available but is more expensive and not from the official dealer; warranty support if needed may be patchy. Same goes for HOG, although it's actually cheaper than even the Apeks set. The Apeks is from the official distributor and has a lifetime warranty (I do realise there isn't much to go wrong apart from the wing valves and inflator). The DGX setup ticks all the boxes but I'd have to buy 2 to qualify for free expedited international shipping, and even that is listed as taking up to 4 weeks and may not be trackable, which would be a bit of a concern.
At the moment I'm leaning towards the Apex 18 wing. If I find it's a problem at least with a modular system I can swap it out easily. One thing I have noticed, I haven't read any negative feedback from anyone who actually uses an 18lb wing... of course they could all be stuck on the bottom!
More feedback is very welcome, I am not rushing to make a decision.