Why are people so concerned about the future of diving anyway?
It's never been a mainstream sport and never will be.
There will always be divers, just not very many of them.
Here's some information from a consumer purchase/survey database I have access to:
In 2012 the participation rate in scuba diving (at least one member of a household has participated) among affluent households is as follows:
Household income >$100,000 - 2.1%
Household income >$200,000 - 3.7%
I chose to look at affluent households as comprising the population with the greatest likelihood of having disposable income and available leisure time. Not to say they are the only people that do/could dive, but they are clearly the most attractive market segment. It's a logical assumption that both initial penetration rate and continued participation rates would be lower at lower income levels.
Seeing as households earning >$100,000 comprise roughly 15% of the US population, what we see is that 2.1% of 15% of US households are an attractive target for "the scuba industry." That's 0.31% of US households... less than one-third of one-percent.
By comparison below are the participation rates for downhill snow-skiing and golf.
SKIING
Household income >$100,000 - 8.4%
Household income >$200,000 - 12.9%
GOLF
Household income >$100,000 - 21.6%
Household income >$200,000 - 25.5%
So four times as many "attractive market" households engage in skiing, and 10x as many engage in golf.
Both of these are activities that are gear intensive, require some level of initial and incremental training. Both typically require/involve travel to expensive locations and/or are unavailable seasonally to large portions of the country. (Hell, skiing anywhere in the US is a 4.5mo proposition best case.) Sounds a lot like scuba diving, no?
So cost, training, travel, and seasonality don't seem to prevent an attractive target market from engaging in sports. Hmm...