Marketing: Are we ok, or do we need help?

[RVBldr]

I came from another industry in decline to join this one. That being the Aviation industry. They too are crying about losing pilots and people not flying as much blah blah blah (of course they also have a heavy-handed Fed agency that doesn't much help their issue).

Neither that one nor this one are for everyone. Money AND leisure time are the key to any hobby. Right now, I think its fair to say that everyone is pretty cautious about where they spend either of those. Bang for the buck.

Good service standards, good product standards and good safety records are by far the most important to attracting and retaining the right people for this sport. That if anything is what should be promoted industry wide IMHO.

After getting to the end of the thread, I was thinking the same thing. I've been involved in recreational aviation since late 80's and if good diving were available in eastern Nebraska at the time, I might have dove more! Since the late 80's the recreational side of aviation has also taken a large dump and most of the participants blame costs. A small Fixed Base Operator in TX recently went 2 weeks with $1 a gallon fuel, and the demand was through the roof, leading to a supposition that it was indeed costs keeping pilots grounded. Then there's a study that indicated if aircraft and fuel costs from 30-40 years ago were adjusted for inflation, well, they're about the same.

At one of out local airports here (Thun Field - Puyallup, WA), a guy took over the local fuel concession and pilot shop and appears to have turned it around. He's got the cheapest fuel around and built out a shop where pilots can get a cup of coffee and hang out. It's neat, inviting, and they have a great staff.


I'm not saying that cost is the overall driving factor in diving, I don't think it's got a whole to do with the industry - people are going to spend money, it just depends on their interests. Personally, I've been spending more time diving this past year instead of flying (and my aviation log show's it!), with limited free time, folks have to make decisions on where to spend time.

I think the LDS situation is probably the biggest issue in capturing new converts to the sport. Make the LDS an inviting environment and staff appropriately. Folks just wandering in to a shop don't want to be intimidated by over inflated egos behind the glass counter. We had a local shop that had no counter - just kitchen table of sorts, where customers felt at home and could just hang out. No cash register for the most part , all transactions were done on iPads and that concept seemed to work, at least from that aspect. The shop didn't survive, but that particular concept seems to work well.

Back to the previous post, presenting a good service in a welcoming environment is going to go far in capturing and keeping new divers. As they say, "all politics are local", and this is most likely true for the LDS.

 

[RJP]

The number of new divers each year has leveled off/declined over the past 15yrs, if you regard the number of PADI certifications as being a reasonable barometer:

It's probably not a coincidence that the general shape of the above curve is the same as the DJIA, S&P 500, or almost any other economic indicator you'd like to consider.

I don't know for sure, but I would guess the number of dive shops/instructors/suppliers/etc grew at roughly the same pace. This would have been unsustainable in any eventuality. Factor in the growth of lower-cost, on-line retailers, and what you've got is way too many suppliers of goods and services fighting for their piece an ever-shrinking pie of bargain hunting customers. Then layer in general economic malaise, increased prices of everything, and stagnation of wage growth and you could not write a worse "worst case" scenario.

As Eric alludes above, this is likely "the new normal" and a shakeout is not just to be expected but probably desirable.

I do however believe that the time is right for a scuba renaissance. With the absolute penetration of diving in US households with incomes >$100k being only 2% there's room for astounding growth without an expectation - or even a need - to get "everyone" diving.

 

[SanDiegoSidemount]

The number of new divers each year has leveled off/declined over the past 15yrs, if you regard the number of PADI certifications as being a reasonable barometer

Note the disclaimer on the chart: "Divers may have multiple certifications". Is it a coincidence that the proliferation of "add-on" specialty certification courses started around the same time that the training numbers were slowing?

The entire list of certs you could get in the '80s was (give or take): Basic Scuba, OW, AOW, Divemaster, Instructor, Instructor Trainer. What is the size of the list now? Triple that? More? (Depending on agency, of course.)

I suspect this graph would show a steep decline over recent years if all it showed were initial OW certifications.

 

[RJP]

Note the disclaimer on the chart: "Divers may have multiple certifications". Is it a coincidence that the proliferation of "add-on" specialty certification courses started around the same time that the training numbers were slowing?

The entire list of certs you could get in the '80s was (give or take): Basic Scuba, OW, AOW, Divemaster, Instructor, Instructor Trainer. What is the size of the list now? Triple that? More? (Depending on agency, of course.)

I suspect this graph would show a steep decline over recent years if all it showed were initial OW certifications.

Not sure how steep any recent decline would be, but agree this would be the "best case" curve.

 

[SanDiegoSidemount]

Agreed, this would be the "best case" curve.

Designed to show PADI member shops and instructors that "all is not lost". Yet.

I think there are a lot of valid points on this thread about needing to grow the entire market for diving, which would be reflected statistically in OW certifications.

How to grow the entire market? This thread has identified a lot of obstacles to growth: many competing pastimes, lack of high profile media (movies, TV, etc) to glamorize diving the way Sea Hunt did, local dive shops that are dingy and unappealing from a basic retail standpoint.

Solutions on a large scale, though, are going to be much harder to come by. Is the industry admitting there's a problem? Is anyone willing to solve it by growing the entire market instead of scavenging one another's customers?

 

[Trace Malinowski]

Wait! I think I saw the same graph in a history book about the successful attrition rate in Vietnam.

 

[RJP]

The industry, such as it is, needs to embrace the idea of coopetition, rather than mutually assured destruction.

 

[DiveNav]

...... I'm working on starting a marketing agency for the scuba industry. I'm curious to see if anyone has feedback for me......

Maybe you could start with creating an agency that distribute Press Releases well beyond a list of scuba insiders

 

[Trace Malinowski]

I remember that Delta Flight Academy placed an ad in scuba magazines. I seriously thought about it.

 

[RJP]

Maybe you could start with creating an agency that distribute Press Releases well beyond a list of scuba insiders

Don't worry, with the advent of the internet every press release gets distributed universally. The problem is that no editor - outside scuba insiders - will pick up a boring, jargon-laced press release about scuba diving.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: AquaPro is excited to announce the release of their long awaited DCS-Promaster 9000x. This radical product - a combination backpack/BCD/popcorn maker - will revolutionize scuba diving...

Look at this forum alone... what non-scuba publication would pick up any of these topics: