Web Monkey:
I think it will actually be good for the remainig dive shops.
They can sell training, service and air, none of which can be done over the net. This will also free up a ton of money they had tied up in inventory and reduce overhead, since they won't need room for a sales floor anymore.
Also, once the above service costs are unbundled from sales, prices for training, repairs and especially air will take a big jump, so in the end, long-term divers who buy services frequently will end up paying more, while newbies who typically drop out after buying their first set of equipment will get a break.
Well I'm not sure if it will be good for the remaining dive shops, but I understand your point of view.
My first thought when I ready the above 1st sentence of the 2nd paragraph is that this won't work. You are abosolutely correct that this would require a huge jump in prices for air fills and training costs. Most dive shops either take a loss or make a limited amount on air fills and training.
If you factor in the cost of a new compressor, nitrox mixing panel, cascade tanks, o2 cleaning everything, filters, captital investment, labor, insurance, electricty, etc, then I'm betting that most dive shops aren't making money on air fills. Maybe the ones in the Keys are because of volume, but most aren't and just factor it as a necessary evil for a dive shop.
Same thing for open water training. The average class cost in about $230 to $250 (w/o boat checkout dives). Factor in 2 days of classroom and pool and 2 days of instructor time for checkouts, rental gear and tanks, air fills, insurance, labor costs, agency costs, pool costs, etc... I don't see how they are making much if anything.
What they are really hoping for is gear sales.
I can see your point though of charging realistic amounts for training and air fills to offset the loss of competing in gear sales, but if you raise air fill prices to $8 to $10 per air fill, then folks will just go to the dive shop across town, just like they've been going "across the internet" for gear sales. Same for training. They'll just use the much cheaper shop.
However, to follow up on Chris' post, the internet is a perfect example of how people "pre shop" on the internet before going to the storefront to purchase. (I did the same exact thing when I bought my compound mitre saw.)
plot:
My LDS is primarily an auqalung dealer, and auqalung requires all of their sells to be over the counter. Does that mean my shop is SOL?
Boy this is a perfect example of how this thing with PADI might change the internet sales routine. Aqualung and ScubaPro have always been against internet sales and also control sales price even more with their dealers. They will either change or get passed by in the industry. But they are so 'bull headed' about this change you'll see the whole industry's "jaw drop" when it happens.
Aqualung is one of those above referenced dealers that sales to grey markets but won't let their dealers do it. It's a huge double standard in the industry. There is whole thread on the problems with Aqualung. see
The Aqualung Discussion Thread
It's moving that way though.... Atomic Regulators I've heard is about to announce online regulator sales.
Will the others change? dunno....