1fastcat:
What's next - oh yeah, the adapt to the new market or die crowd. Hmmmm...1st point - the ones who are doing it are the ones making the money - everyone should do it. Ok geniuses, let's live in your fantasy world and say that every LDS on the planet a. had the money to build an internet retail site, sales and customer support center and b. had the money to inventory all of the items that would be required to provide adequate product selection and delivery times (warehousing and inventory carrying costs), Your theory is that they would all prosper. Last time I looked the internet has lost the vast majority of e-tailers from the dot-com period, and the vast majority of purchasing is from the mega e-tailers or the portals that control who is on their sites (pricegrabber etc.). We could all hope to buy "manufacturer direct"? Maybe they'll give you a free trial period (you pay for the return shipping)since you can't actually see-touch-feel the product in person, and maybe they'll answer the phone right away when you call with questions/complaints - uh-oh I forgot I was calling the service center in Pakistan, and they can't return calls, so I guess I'll have to wait on hold forever. So I guess that this portion of the "new market" fantasy is a little flawed.
Nobody has ever claimed that everyone would prosper. In high volume, low margin markets whoever can survive and grow big off the thinnest margins and take advantage of the greatest economies of scale is the one who will survive. That, in fact, leads to Wal-Marts. Everyone else goes out of business.
Let's examine the next portion of your fantasy world - one of your professors posted that market forces would prevail - the LDS that doesn't adapt will die, and the remaining LDS will be able to charge more for services, therefore increase profit margins, and survive. So, if I understand your logic, the same guy who will buy a mask on-line to save 15%, will pay me 100% more than I used to charge just because the competition has gone out of business. Gosh Wally, I haven't seen that trick ever work in the real world.
That actually works very well in the real world. Chain stores will come in, undercut their competition, drive them out of business and then when there's nobody left, jack up prices. Everone pays after the prices are jacked up, because they have no other choice.
The thing about training and air fills are that its difficult to get those over the internet. That means that regionally once enough LDSes go out of business, the remaining LDSes will have pricing power. Once you get to the point where incoming new LDSes aren't suicidal and understand that gear isn't going to be their cash cow, they'll be forced to keep prices on training and fills higher.
Yet another part of this "new economics" fantasy: They can lower prices on products and make it up by charging more for technical training and services. OK, let's start charging $1000 for OW certification and give away the equipment. Wow, there will be so many new divers signing up, I bet there will be a shortage on registration forms around the world. Oh, I forgot you're already certified, so who cares? How about the same $1000 for your Advanced/Rescue/DM etc training?
Oh- you want to charge me $100 for a regulator overhaul? Maybe you'll also spring for that $250 per person local dive boat that the LDS had to charter? (wow Wally, when the LDS doesn't sell all the spots, they still have to pay the skipper for the full charter fee - but that's not a risk/reward profit motive that we should have to pay for, is it?)
Nobody ever claimed that the result of market forces is going to be better for scuba diving -- particularly when measured by the metric of how many new divers can be cranked out. Higher costs for BOW courses, driven by market forces, will lead to a higher barrier to entry to the sport which will decrease participation overall.
Its not that I don't care (but technically its true that I don't), its that the market isn't going to care.
Oh, let's not forget the grand-daddy of them all - GM/FORD getting their butts kicked. Last time I looked, you couldn't buy your new car direct from the factory. The domestics' problems are deep, but failing to sell direct on the internet is not one of them. Oh, by the way Mr. Rocket scientist, in a service-heavy business model i.e. local service centers are REQUIRED, you can't jsut be a virtual retailer. How would you like to have to ship that car back to Tokyo for that warranty work?
For reg service, having it serviced via mail is perfectly feasable, and a lot of LDSes just accept your money and ship your regs off out of state anyway. For things like tank VIPs that's where LDSes are going to need to charge more in the future.
All this boils down to the fact that without numerous LDS's, diving is a dying sport.
No its not, that is completely hyperbolic.
No one is going to be around to fill tanks,
Yes they will. If there was absolutely zero fill stations around and significant demand, someone would come up with a bright idea of how to cheaply setup a compressor and sell fills and price them high enough to make a profit.
Or you get groups of divers going in together on compressors. It only takes about $10k to setup a compressor, a booster and a few T cylinders for banks if you shop around.
answer the questions of beginners or interested parties,
All the existing divers will be around. Mentoring is extremely powerful. There's also already a thriving market in training which is done by instructors that are not attatched to any dive shop.
provide training and certification (back to one of the other genius' comments that training will be provided on a "ad-hoc" market demand basis - I guess Guido is going to see all the people who are lined up for OW certification based on internet exposure, buy a bunch of wetsuits, BC's, regulators, masks, snorkles, fins, a compressor, tanks, weights ad nauseum, stack them up in his garage, and start training on the weekend - NOT GOING TO HAPPEN) (or maybe, the "new new economic model" is that newbies, before ever diving, will buy all their own equipment from the e-tailers?). Do you really think someone is going to buy a compressor to fill tanks and make a living - based on your demand side economics of course ? And how active will most of our diving be, when you have to drive 250 miles or more to the nearest "I survived by being a Mega LDS e-tailer"? And how many diving boat operators are giong to stay in business by internet marketing? Too many holes in all of the naysayers' arguments.
This is all just rediculously hyperbolic. For any economic vacuum, someone will hop in and try to fill it, and if their prices are way too damn high, then someone else will hop into the market and try to undercut them.
Finally, for the incredible Mr. Limpett who questioned my economic background and called me a bleeding heart liberal. I happen to be a fairly conservative Republican that received a nomination to West Point, have been a manager of union trucking terminals, specialized in turn-around management during the early to mid nineties (can you say "real world" economics), Founded a fiber-optics technology company in 1998 with the Sr. VP of Technology and Engineering from Qwest Communications, and the Head of Agilent's wireless division, have two pending patents, and currently own a real estate and development company specializing in retail shopping centers.
As for my diving equipment:
Dive-rite Transpac with rec-wing (made in usa)
Steel tank - made in usa
Atomic B2 and SS1 - made in usa
Apollo BC/XT Pro
Old style Dacor mask - made in italy
Pinnacle Polar wetsuit
Mares titanium nemo - made in italy
California Diving Company Dive Box - made in USA
If at all possible, I will buy USA, and will always try to avoid buying "made in China". Why, maybe because my 25+ years of "real world" economics experience has taught me that America cannot thrive in the long term without a strong manufacturing sector.
Those of you who think that the USA will thrive and be prosperous by being a financial services, consumption based economy with offshore manufacturing, customer service, and r&d, just keep spending that home equity line. In the next 20 years, there will not be a buyer for your house that will pay you what you owe.
I doubt in the next 2 years that there will be a buyer for your house that will pay you what you owe. I think that housing in the USA in the next 10-15 years is going to look like the bear market in housing in Japan and that the trade deficit and lack of consumer saving in the USA is likely to cause our economy and standard of living to tank. Where we differ is that I think that saying "don't buy made in china" is the wrong angle completely. People in this country need to get off their fat butts and do productive things to come up with goods or services at prices that others can afford. I see way too many people working in this country who don't do anything to add any value. Whining about how you or your job is getting undercut by foreign companies is not a means to compete. Either you need to figure out how to be more efficient and undercut their cheap labor through better streamlining of your business, or else you need to find some other way to make money becuase you just lost. And I say this working in an industry where I constantly need to be staying on top of what I can offer my employer or else they may outsource my job to Bangalore.