June Roll Call?

[mediumone]

I've been monitoring the weather in preparation for our arrival this coming Sunday the 17th. I'm noticing that the forecast shows thunderstorms just about every day this week and next (including today). Is this normal and nothing to be concerned about, or are we in for significant rainfall throughout the next couple of weeks?

If you go to your local grocery store and look at the celery, you'll get an equally accurate and reliable forecast. It's the tropics.

 

[ggunn]

I've been monitoring the weather in preparation for our arrival this coming Sunday the 17th. I'm noticing that the forecast shows thunderstorms just about every day this week and next (including today). Is this normal and nothing to be concerned about, or are we in for significant rainfall throughout the next couple of weeks?

The former. It's not uncommon for the forecast to say "Thunderstorms" or "Chance of thunderstorms" every day for weeks at a time this time of year. Unless tropical systems are in play, this typically means that there might be a little popup shower or two some time during the day. Most of these "storms" are very small and of short duration. It might rain for a few minutes around the Fiesta Americana while in town and down at Punta Sur will stay dry and sunny. Don' worry, be happy.

I'll just add this: Again, excluding a tropical storm, could anything in the forecast cause you to change your travel plans? If not, stop looking at the weather. There's nothing you can do about it and all you are doing is increasing your anxiety. Vacation is the opposite of that.

 

[kmarks]

I've been monitoring the weather in preparation for our arrival this coming Sunday the 17th. I'm noticing that the forecast shows thunderstorms just about every day this week and next (including today). Is this normal and nothing to be concerned about, or are we in for significant rainfall throughout the next couple of weeks?

There was rain forecast for every day I was there. A few days before I left, it was supposed to rain something like 5 inches last Thursday, but then that forecast got changed to less than half an inch, then nothing by the time I left. It only rained twice: Friday evening it sprinkled a bit, and Saturday night it stormed pretty hard for a few minutes, then rained on and off for about an hour or two. Either way, rain won't affect your diving unless it's a really bad storm and the port gets closed due to dangerous conditions, usually because of a strong north or southeast wind.

That said, the National Hurricane Center is tracking a potential TD right now. Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook There is a 20% chance of it developing into a storm in the next 5 days. But even if it does, it looks like it will be beyond Cozumel by the time you get there.

 

[Christi]

There was rain forecast for every day I was there. A few days before I left, it was supposed to rain something like 5 inches last Thursday, but then that forecast got changed to less than half an inch, then nothing by the time I left. It only rained twice: Friday evening it sprinkled a bit, and Saturday night it stormed pretty hard for a few minutes, then rained on and off for about an hour or two. Either way, rain won't affect your diving unless it's a really bad storm and the port gets closed due to dangerous conditions, usually because of a strong north or southeast wind.

That said, the National Hurricane Center is tracking a potential TD right now. Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook There is a 20% chance of it developing into a storm in the next 5 days. But even if it does, it looks like it will be beyond Cozumel by the time you get there.

Even a TD or TS is no worse than a summer thunderstorm up in the mid-west for example - I've been through much WORSE TS's in Minnesota than any TD or TS I've experienced here - people tend to "freak" because the word "tropical" is in front of it - that is only a GEOGRAPHIC term! Take the word "tropic" away and you have "depression" = weather disturbance and "storm" - a stronger weather disturbance which MOST of the time produces heavy rains and winds around the center of the storm

We would all be SOOOO rich if we had a dollar for every opportunity we have to answer the "the forecast says it's going to rain every day of my trip" post - hahaha!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea just to the east of Nicaragua and northeastern
Honduras is associated with a sharp surface trough. This area of
disturbed weather is forecast to move westward to northwestward over
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days, and little development is expected during that time due to
strong upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become slightly more conducive for some development when the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce
locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, Honduras,
Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

 

[kmarks]

(lots of words)

I wasn't trying to imply that the weather would in any way affect Abidon's diving. I was just trying to say that if there is a depression, or even just this current disturbance, there is probably a higher chance (very slightly, of course) that a forecast of rain might actually mean there will be some rain. Not that it means anything. It's so humid in Cozumel right now you won't notice if it starts raining. It rained every day my first time in Cozumel and we barely cared.

I've lived in the midwest for 15 years and, except for June 2008, many of the spring and summer thunderstorms I grew up with in Austin were worse. People just think it's scarier here because they think of Iowa as tornado country. Swap tornado for hurricane and you have Cozumel - rain or storm in the forecast? Must be a hurricane.

 

[Christi]

Blue XT~Sea Diving just had a last minute cancellation for ONE spot on the mornings of Thursday, Friday and Saturday (14, 15, 16). If anyone here would like to pick up a dive or two or three with us, please contact me at info@bluextseadiving.com

 

[kmarks]

Blue XT~Sea Diving just had a last minute cancellation for ONE spot on the mornings of Thursday, Friday and Saturday (14, 15, 16). If anyone here would like to pick up a dive or two or three with us, please contact me at info@bluextseadiving.com

I'll take the spot for tomorrow and Saturday if you can get me a transfer to the marina from El Centro Iowa.

 

[CaliDreamer]

How have the currents and conditions been? Heading to czm in 4 days

 

[keepdivin]

How have the currents and conditions been? Heading to czm in 4 days

CaliDreamer I don't see you registered in the June roll call.

 

[CaliDreamer]

CaliDreamer I don't see you registered in the June roll call.

I am not. I’m new to the forum. Not sure how to register?