Ivan and Coz update+

[Dan Kom]

It was so Strange today...Since the mexican work week is Six days out of seven. Sunday is sacred...So today everyone was at the beach, it was a beautiful day. Sun was shining. Since its sunday almost all the hardware stores were closed. Couldnt get a nail. Only about 10/15 percent of people here were preparing. Maybe cause the island has been spared mant times before. Well, Im sitting there in my chair by the pool thinking ah, it will pass. Then suddenly the skies got dark, and an outer band probably came through. A gust of wind of about 25kt-30kt along with some rain and boom!. I jumped out of my chair and said, Geez this is for real!...So out came the adrenaline and anything that wasnt bolted down. Including 54in big screen was in the rooms and locked down...Now at 11pm is just a constant rain and no wind...Just a wierd day....

 

[parrotheaddiver]

I hope everyone is safe this morning. Please give us some updates.

 

[wmspdi]

As of 8:30 AM EDT Monday... Maybe good news for Coz, bad news for Cuba. Ivan seems to be starting to hook northbound now. Not alot of course change yet, but the track may be indicating the start of a trend. Hang in there Coz.

 

[FrankT]

Here is a good link for you Ivan watchers.

www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

Frank

 

[Christi]

no matter which way it goes.

Here is an excerpt from the latest discussion and advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

If I did not have a previous forecast to maintain some continuity with...I would have shifted the track even further to the left. Meanwhile...since the motion is still west-northwestward...the center could miss the western tip of Cuba
and move through the Yucatan Channel and could even approach the Yucatan Peninsula if a 300 degree heading is maintained for another 24 hours.

Forecaster Lawrence

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 20.4 north...longitude 84.1 west or about 110 miles...180 km...south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and a slight turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. Depending on the exact motion...the center could miss the western tip of Cuba and could possibly move near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles...325 km. We are only some 90 miles or so from Cuba, so we are definitely going to feel this thing STRONG no matter where the eye passes at this point unless it goes back out to sea!

 

[ggunn]

We are only some 90 miles or so from Cuba, so we are definitely going to feel this thing STRONG no matter where the eye passes at this point unless it goes back out to sea!

Hunker down, Christi. I hope you've got a secure place away from the waterfront to pass the storm. My thoughts are with you guys.

Chin up,

 

[wmspdi]

First of all it's great to see you back, and that you still have power, and communications, on the island after your earlier posts. As of 9:30 EDT NWS still sounds unsure of exactly where Ivan will pass between Cuba and the Yucatan. The slight jog to the north I observed on the charts seemed to be a wobble... sort of like a spinning top moving across the floor without any strong currents aloft to stear it. What are you experiencing there now?

 

[BluOrchid2]

Thanks for the updates on the situation at Cozumel and would like to hear from some mainland folks, too in/around Cancun/PDC/RM. Be safe, you guys!

 

[freefall2]

Good luck you guys.

We're on a boat and we always left Coz when the storms were coming. Isla Mujeres was our hurricane hole. I'm glad we're not up there for this one! The scariest one for us in that area was Mitch in '98. They kicked us out of the marina and we were heading north to Isla M in 20' seas. We had to turn back and anchor in front of town. The Capitania came out on the Yellow Rose to try to convince la güera (me) to go ashore with them. I stayed. We put out nearly 400' of anchor chain and waited it out on the hook. We found out later that 2 of the Fury Catamarans that left about the same time as us sunk and the 3rd one beached. Mitch never reached us and we paid $4000 USD in fines to the Capitania because the port was closed when the marina kicked us out.

We have Ivan related weather down here in Roatan now. Dark clouds, gusty wind and pouring rain.

We'll be looking forward to updates if your internet stays up.

Liz

 

[michaelp68]

Looking forward to updates.

A regular dive buddy of mine, and his wife, are at PDC right now, and scheduled to head to Coz on Thursday.

Hope everyone stays safe.

Michael