Is Irene on the way?

[simbrooks]

Ok, so its not officially named yet, but its big enough coming this way (although might go anywhere - anyone seen where the highs and lows are moving to in the upcoming future?) and is likely to develop - here we are in August and this is just the start of the peak of the season!!

Irene?

 

[Doc]

Ok, so its not officially named yet, but its big enough coming this way

Coming this way? Where are you located, on an island NE of Bermuda?

 

[Rick Murchison]

This morning Forecaster Avila said it best... "how little we know."
Here's the latest...
"HOW LITTLE WE KNOW ABOUT THE GENESIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. SATELLITE
IMAGES DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY SHOWED A DISTINCT DISTURBANCE IN THE
DEEP TROPICS WITH ALL KNOWN FACTORS APPARENTLY FAVORABLE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. SURPRISINGLY THIS
MORNING...VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED. UNEXPECTEDLY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVED
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS AND LOST MOST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL MAINTAINS A LARGE AND
VIGOROUS ENVELOPE WITH AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. IT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS WERE DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT WESTWARD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...IN THE LATEST 6Z GFS RUN...THERE IS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL...LIKE THE GFS...ALSO CHANGED ITS TUNE AT 6Z
AND NOW EVEN SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS.

GIVEN THESE DRASTIC CHANGES SEEN IN GFS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO
MAKES A DRASTIC CHANGE IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS
NOW KEPT AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A MODEST DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WHEN THE CYCLONE
REACHES WARMER WATERS...IF IT SURVIVES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA"

Rick

 

[Bill51]

Between the Gulf Stream upwelling of the past 2 weeks, the multiple highs off the mid-Atlantic, and the big cold front across mid-Ohio backed by a fast moving high, I don’t think it has a chance of moving any further west than the current predictions.

 

[simbrooks]

Coming this way? Where are you located, on an island NE of Bermuda?

At the time i put the post in, the 5-day estimate was headed straight at Florida, since 11am they have posted a new chart and its changed again as they have a habit of doing, doesnt mean it might not turn back again. I think part of the reason they are pushing it north is due to the funny northward shift of the centre of rotation vs the actual centre of the bulk of the cloud that is associated with the wave part of this depression as was mentioned in the last bulletin (5am) and repeated in the most recent one.

Just to give an insight on my initial post, these were the figures given in the 5am bulletin:
INITIAL 05/0900Z 14.4N 36.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 15.1N 37.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 15.9N 39.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 16.7N 41.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 17.7N 44.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 19.0N 48.6W 55 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 20.5N 53.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 58.5W 75 KT

Now its:
INITIAL 05/1500Z 16.4N 37.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.5N 39.0W 25 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 41.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 43.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 20.5N 45.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 48.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 26.5N 52.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 30.0N 55.0W 35 KT

Quite a shift.

I can see the look on the news weather anchors and their field reporters: :dropmouth when their next big story just wandered off into the north Atlantic!

 

[simbrooks]

So it seems the track has shifted back a lot nearer where it was first aimed - not that FL might get it, but the mid-Atlantic might see a little rain if not an actual tropical system - what did those guys think was likely to happen in the updated tropical guesstimate, that the mid-Atlantic and northeast were likely to see some storms, well here might be the first just to whet (or should that be wet?) your appetite

INITIAL 10/0900Z 22.4N 57.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 22.9N 59.0W 25 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 23.7N 61.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 24.6N 63.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 25.7N 65.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 27.0N 68.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 28.5N 70.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 30.0N 73.0W 50 KT

Look how close todays "initial" reading is to the 120hr from the third advisory i posted above - interesting....

 

[Doc]

well here might be the first just to whet (or should that be wet?) your appetite

And for those who are new to this spectator (and sometimes participatory) sport... watch these storms as they are born, spinning off of the Equator of Africa, heading west... here they come!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/f_meteo.html

 

[simbrooks]

Who knows how many more we could get this year.....