Interpreting a weather forecast

[SteveFass]

Help me try to predict whether I'm going diving tomorrow (Sunday). Eventually the boat captain will of course call to cancel but the waiting is tough so I'm asking for your best guess. We got called for weather a few weeks ago, the last time I tried to go, and it didn't even rain that weekend.

Below is what I got off the internet. I know anything with the phrase "advisory" sounds bad, but if you read on to Sunday, it doesn't sound that bad to this landlubber. Thanks.

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
405 AM EDT SAT OCT 7 2006

MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY OUT 20 NM OFFSHORE
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY
NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. TIDES 1 TO
1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL WILL CAUSE MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

TONIGHT
NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT...SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUN
NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO
6 FT.

 

[duckster3d]

i mate a dive boat out of hatteras nc. my read on your forecast is that your not going out. unless the capt has a boat payment due. lol

4 to 6 foot seas are doable, but i wouldn't want to be aboard. lots of people lookig for ralph.

 

[spectrum]

If it were a shore dive as most of mine are I'd say Sunday is at risk and the wind direction relative to the site will make or break it.

Just up the coast here 2-4 foot seas are normal, getting less than that represents less than 10% of the time. If seas really do start settling as predicted Saturday night 4-6 is not a big deal to a fair sized boat. What it means to the divers is more about comfort and what sort of ladder/platform you have for getting back onto the boat. Getting back on would be a bigger concern to me and I would not let that aspect rest solely with the captain, it's about your comfort & skill level.

Another consideration is the make-up of the seas. 4-6 foot swells are one thing. 4-6 foot waves are quite different. Sometimes swells and waves are listed seperately on buoy data pages online. Ours now only list wave height and period.

What is the Sunday night and Monday forecast? Is it a settling trend or are you threading the needle on Sunday?

Is the destination site going to be on the sheltered site of a island or out in open water? For a fair szed boat it may be more about the site than the ride.

The captain may downgrade the dive site to keep the booking but take you to a less ambitious location.

Pete

 

[AggieDad]

Get up, get dressed, go to church...your not going out on the boat. Depending upon how big the boat is, I would guess that almost no one would even be able to stand in 8 - 11 foot seas.

 

[Doc Intrepid]

I gotta agree with Doug and Pete. Your chances are somewhere between slim and grim.

4 to 6 ft seas for Sunday - first, getting IN to the ocean isn't necessarily the problem. Getting OUT can be much more interesting.

Second, even if it lays down to something like 2' to 4' or 3' to 5' by 0900, the real gamble is that conditions are often a bit more snotty in the afternoon...so you can get offshore okay but by the time your dive is over and you want to board and return back in you're looking at way rougher seas. This is where divers can get smacked around on the ladder or catch the rudder in the head, etc. At some point you want to ask yourself if it's worth getting the crap beat out of you to do the dive.

I'd make alternative plans, personally.

Dive safe,

Doc

 

[Berdman]

"SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT"


Unless you’re on a cruise liner I don’t think your going!!

 

[SteveFass]

They often use Sundays for divers with little or no experience and for training. The boat is not big, fairly slow, and will be packed (10 people). The captain does this more as a hobby during retirement rather than to pay his rent.

So....can you recommend a good movie?

 

[deeper thoughts]

"SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT"


Unless you’re on a cruise liner I don’t think your going!!

Funny......................

 

[Mr.X]

They often use Sundays for divers with little or no experience and for training. The boat is not big, fairly slow, and will be packed (10 people). The captain does this more as a hobby during retirement rather than to pay his rent.

So....can you recommend a good movie?

A good movie is "Stand By Me". Make sure to watch the barf scene during the pie eating contest.

NYC boat captains have a pretty good idea of whether they will get pounded out at sea days in advance. That being the case, the waters can be quite interesting in that there are sometimes cancelling effects from currents, wind etc. which can make a seemingly terrible dive day into one that is rather decent. All I can say is standby and make sure your answering machine is on.

 

[Tollie]

The Captain will look at the forcast later on today and depending on when he has to call you will make his decision as late as possible.

As has been said... small boat 10 inexperienced divers (plus a ton of gear)... 4 to 6 foot seas... As Doc noted things tend to get worse (not allways though) in the afternoon when the offshore winds come up. If the seas are long period swells not too bad... short period waves and you will be very sad trying to exit the water.

All marginal and uncomfortable IMO but too early at this point to call the dive.

Oh... what ever is happening today may clear out early or may last longer.

Perhaps close inshore sites would be possible.