INDONESIA - 2021 Cancellations Ahead, is your booking at risk?

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I have Raja Ampat scheduled for the first 10 days of January 2020 with Mermaid -- I don't see how that trip goes, but I've not cancelled anything yet. I think I have roughly 60 more days until final payment and before then I'll need to figure it out. Even if the trip goes, not sure I can get there without massive challenges in my current routing which is through Taiwan. Last I checked Taiwan was not allowing transit.
For now foreigners are only allowed to enter Indonesia if they already have a staying permit. Further they need to be fully vaccinated. And if they enter, they have to stay 8 days in a hotel in Jakarta before they are allowed to travel further. If and when these rules will change can nobody say now. Good news is that the rates of daily vaccinations go up. Testing however not really. Still many days with less than 150.000 people being tested. Another thing is that this Delta variant changed the way we should think about protection by vaccination, distancing, masks and ventilation of enclosed spaces. For one thing, we can forget about herd imunity.
 
There will be herd immunity, just longer and the hard way.
 
Someone in SB posted (I forgot where the post was) Dr.John Campbell’s important announcement about herd immunity is not going to happen and we just have to learn to live with it.

Everyone will eventually gets it. We need to get ready for it! No use to get people tested for it. It’s better to test the sick ones, whether it’s due to COVID-19.

 
Everyone will eventually gets it. We need to get ready for it! No use to get people tested for it.

Very interesting. Some caveats need to be considered. Originally, testing was intended to enable isolating carriers so as to slow the rate of spread and 'flatten the curve,' reducing the strain (and overwhelming) of medical resources. This perspective was in the United States, and even in recent times despite substantial vaccinations, there is a severe strain in some areas (to the extent there are arrangements in place to deploy National Guardsmen to assist some). Flattening the curve still doesn't sound so bad. All the more so, since we don't yet have approval for use of any COVID-19 vaccine in kids under age 12.

And that's in America. Considering the matter in Indonesia is a very different situation. But our answer may be irrelevant; from what Indah's posted before, testing was, is and will likely remain quite limited, and viral spread will rage on.
 
Very interesting. Some caveats need to be considered. Originally, testing was intended to enable isolating carriers so as to slow the rate of spread and 'flatten the curve,' reducing the strain (and overwhelming) of medical resources. This perspective was in the United States, and even in recent times despite substantial vaccinations, there is a severe strain in some areas (to the extent there are arrangements in place to deploy National Guardsmen to assist some). Flattening the curve still doesn't sound so bad. All the more so, since we don't yet have approval for use of any COVID-19 vaccine in kids under age 12.

And that's in America. Considering the matter in Indonesia is a very different situation. But our answer may be irrelevant; from what Indah's posted before, testing was, is and will likely remain quite limited, and viral spread will rage on.
I like to hear your insights on the above Dr. John Campbell’s “Important Announcement”. In there he made comments about Indonesia too. So it is not out of topic.
 
It's at 12:18 where he says 'Indonesia,' as part of saying he thinks it's different in places like the Philippines and Indonesia, where there've been a lot of children getting sick and dying as there's more malnutrition and comorbidities (note: but in the U.S. I suspect obesity levels in youth are higher; not sure what childhood comorbidities there he's talking about other than malnutrition).

That puts a different spin on things. Earlier in the pandemic, the thinking was the elderly and people with select comobidities (e.g.: obese, diabetes, congestive heart failure) were at much higher risk than the general population. Simply by virtue of being leaner and fitter on average, it might've been hoped 3rd world populations might have fewer problems with it. The impact of malnutrition is one I (being a fat American) hadn't even thought about.
 
It's at 12:18 where he says 'Indonesia,' as part of saying he thinks it's different in places like the Philippines and Indonesia, where there've been a lot of children getting sick and dying as there's more malnutrition and comorbidities (note: but in the U.S. I suspect obesity levels in youth are higher; not sure what childhood comorbidities there he's talking about other than malnutrition).

That puts a different spin on things. Earlier in the pandemic, the thinking was the elderly and people with select comobidities (e.g.: obese, diabetes, congestive heart failure) were at much higher risk than the general population. Simply by virtue of being leaner and fitter on average, it might've been hoped 3rd world populations might have fewer problems with it. The impact of malnutrition is one I (being a fat American) hadn't even thought about.
How about the rest of his points:
- Herd immunity is an impossible goal because of the breakthrough infection.
- The inevitable that everyone would eventually gets it.
- Based on that, what’s the point of testing? It’s better of putting resources on testing sick ones (like we do to people who get flu) & on driving up the vaccination rate.
- Stopping COVID-19 mass testing, like Germany is planning to do in October.
- No more statistics on positive cases, but just do it on people who are sick admitted in the hospitals to avoid frightening ourselves from the shear number of cases. So we should move to clinically based testing. Well people shouldn’t be testing.
 
It's at 12:18 where he says 'Indonesia,' as part of saying he thinks it's different in places like the Philippines and Indonesia, where there've been a lot of children getting sick and dying as there's more malnutrition and comorbidities (note: but in the U.S. I suspect obesity levels in youth are higher; not sure what childhood comorbidities there he's talking about other than malnutrition).

That puts a different spin on things. Earlier in the pandemic, the thinking was the elderly and people with select comobidities (e.g.: obese, diabetes, congestive heart failure) were at much higher risk than the general population. Simply by virtue of being leaner and fitter on average, it might've been hoped 3rd world populations might have fewer problems with it. The impact of malnutrition is one I (being a fat American) hadn't even thought about.
The vaccination rate in Indonesia at the moment is 17% of the population older than 12. There is still a lot of Tuberculosis in Indonesia. Before the Covid pandemic daily 250 people died because of TB. 67% of the adult men smoke. Practically all children are passive smokers. I agree with Michael Osterholm, there is very much wrongly predicted and we do know very little still. https://www.youtube.com/c/OsterholmUpdateCOVID19
 
-Herd immunity impossible? In the sense that we won't make the populace so 'immune' that the virus is blocked and disappears, I agree. It'll continue to circulate.
-Inevitable that everyone gets it? I think that's about right.
-Not much point in testing other than to confirm it's the cause when a patient presents with clinical symptoms? Where it's widespread, I agree. In areas where it's not yet widespread, it might still be useful? He has a point; once it becomes very common, how do you react to testing? But if we don't test because we assume the virus is present and widespread anyway...

Are we now at the point in America and other first world settings where we're not going back into lockdown regardless of what happens? Are we past the phase of regional travel bans to keep it out? In another thread, a high ranking politician in Grand Cayman indicated they're opening back up in Oct. Period. But in the Caymans, they've got nearly 75% vaccinated, and vaccines are available.

Applying this to Indonesia...do we assume the virus is so widespread that there's no point in testing?

If that's true, is there much sense in Indonesia barring tourism to keep the virus out?
 

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