INDONESIA - 2021 Cancellations Ahead, is your booking at risk?

[Dan]

I found this thread yesterday. I’m starting to wonder if the title needs to be changed to 2022. I have a trip in 2022 and I’m being told that trip is 50-50.

Me too. I have 3 trips to Indonesia in 2022:
1. February to Raja Ampat on Blue Manta.
2. August to Sangalaki on White Manta (it’s a rescheduled trip from August 2021).
3. October to Forgotten Island on Amira.

 

[Indah]

-Herd immunity impossible? In the sense that we won't make the populace so 'immune' that the virus is blocked and disappears, I agree. It'll continue to circulate.
-Inevitable that everyone gets it? I think that's about right.
-Not much point in testing other than to confirm it's the cause when a patient presents with clinical symptoms? Where it's widespread, I agree. In areas where it's not yet widespread, it might still be useful? He has a point; once it becomes very common, how do you react to testing? But if we don't test because we assume the virus is present and widespread anyway...

Are we now at the point in America and other first world settings where we're not going back into lockdown regardless of what happens? Are we past the phase of regional travel bans to keep it out? In another thread, a high ranking politician in Grand Cayman indicated they're opening back up in Oct. Period. But in the Caymans, they've got nearly 75% vaccinated, and vaccines are available.

Applying this to Indonesia...do we assume the virus is so widespread that there's no point in testing?

If that's true, is there much sense in Indonesia barring tourism to keep the virus out?

People do get sick here, often very sick or even die at home without being tested. Rumors have been spread widely that you only die if you go to a hospital. Over and over you hear: if you fall out of a coconut tree the doctor will say it is covid. But, because the numbers are going down slightly schools want to open again for 50%. The absolute numbers are much higher than when the school closed, and Delta is spreading much faster, but the trend looks as if it is going down. Testing of teachers and students could at least help to prevent this, in my opinion, wrong decision to open the schools now. People from outside Indonesia could bring in variants we do not have yet. This seems to me a real a serious risk. Further, you do not want extra people who might need a hospital bed.

 

[drrich2]

Testing of teachers and students could at least help to prevent this, in my opinion, wrong decision to open the schools now. People from outside Indonesia could bring in variants we do not have yet. This seems to me a real a serious risk.

Thanks for the thoughtful answer, all the more meaningful because you're in Indonesia and also a businessman relying on tourism, as I recall. A couple of follow up points:

1.) Do you have any thoughts on how long it may be till SARS-CoV-2 is so prevalent that there's no point in testing and closing schools, because it's in the community and we're not going to keep it out, anyway?

Part of this answer concerns how prevalent the disease is. Part of it concerns how long till the teachers can get vaccinated. Thankfully kids are relatively low risk (I've got an 8-year old daughter, and no vaccine is approved for her age group yet, so I'm especially glad of that).

2.) I fear the potential for foreign visitors to bring in variants is a risk that's here permanently, for all of us.

 

[Indah]

Thanks for the thoughtful answer, all the more meaningful because you're in Indonesia and also a businessman relying on tourism, as I recall. A couple of follow up points:

1.) Do you have any thoughts on how long it may be till SARS-CoV-2 is so prevalent that there's no point in testing and closing schools, because it's in the community and we're not going to keep it out, anyway?

Part of this answer concerns how prevalent the disease is. Part of it concerns how long till the teachers can get vaccinated. Thankfully kids are relatively low risk (I've got an 8-year old daughter, and no vaccine is approved for her age group yet, so I'm especially glad of that).

2.) I fear the potential for foreign visitors to bring in variants is a risk that's here permanently, for all of us.

Michael Osterholm (see link above) gives a good overview on where we are now in our knowledge about the risks for children. My temporary opinion is that the vaccination rate should be much higher than it is now to even think about opening the schools again. My son (15) went yesterday to school to get his first Sinovac shot. Situation there: No masks which would prevent spread of the virus, no distancing, no proper ventilation in classrooms. 85% of these children will go home to parents and grandparents who are not vaccinated yet. I think it is time to invest huge in online teaching and in making it possible to let the children have their social contacts in their direct neighborhood. Separate education from socializing. In Indonesia education can only improve by that.

 

[NootFish]

I have Raja Ampat scheduled for the first 10 days of January 2020 with Mermaid -- I don't see how that trip goes, but I've not cancelled anything yet. I think I have roughly 60 more days until final payment and before then I'll need to figure it out. Even if the trip goes, not sure I can get there without massive challenges in my current routing which is through Taiwan. Last I checked Taiwan was not allowing transit.

Mermaid will work with you to reschedule... I've had to reschedule twice so far.

 

[ontdiver]

I fear that we will be having the same conversation (go - no go) in 2023.

 

[Illini_Fan]

Mermaid will work with you to reschedule... I've had to reschedule twice so far.

I have no doubt I can move it to a similar week in Jan 2023 - I just don't want to. Plus I really liked my flights and when I eventually cancel, I'll end up with miles going back to United, British Airways and American with no guarantee that those are the miles I will need to book the Jan 2023. Really a small, small issue in the big picture, but just not something I'm looking forward to do again.

 

[drrich2]

Yesterday I got the word from my dive travel agent that it doesn't seem like Indonesia will be reopening in Dec. 2021; he's working on rescheduling my planned trip to 2022.

I thought about Indonesia this morning when browsing The Economist this week morning e-mail; I don't have a subscription as it's pretty expensive, but the teaser info. they send is interesting. Here's a blurb from today:

"Partly because the virus has stopped tourism—Madagascar’s main source of hard currency—the country’s economy is shrinking dramatically, contributing to a near-famine in the country’s south. Our leader argues that in the short-term, Madagascar’s people need aid, and a lot of it; in the long-term, they need better governance. Vietnam’s economy, by contrast, has continued to grow, albeit slowly, driven by trade, foreign investment and remittances. That has helped lift its people out of poverty; whether they can become rich is less clear."

Yes, I know Madagascar is not part of Indonesia. I think of at least parts of Indonesia as poor (by American standards) with tourism a big economic sector, and thus at risk for serious socioeconomic harm with extended tourism exclusion. @Indah , care to comment on how much harm this pandemic is doing (aside from direct sickness and death)?

 

[Indah]

Yesterday I got the word from my dive travel agent that it doesn't seem like Indonesia will be reopening in Dec. 2021; he's working on rescheduling my planned trip to 2022.

I thought about Indonesia this morning when browsing The Economist this week morning e-mail; I don't have a subscription as it's pretty expensive, but the teaser info. they send is interesting. Here's a blurb from today:

"Partly because the virus has stopped tourism—Madagascar’s main source of hard currency—the country’s economy is shrinking dramatically, contributing to a near-famine in the country’s south. Our leader argues that in the short-term, Madagascar’s people need aid, and a lot of it; in the long-term, they need better governance. Vietnam’s economy, by contrast, has continued to grow, albeit slowly, driven by trade, foreign investment and remittances. That has helped lift its people out of poverty; whether they can become rich is less clear."

Yes, I know Madagascar is not part of Indonesia. I think of at least parts of Indonesia as poor (by American standards) with tourism a big economic sector, and thus at risk for serious socioeconomic harm with extended tourism exclusion. @Indah , care to comment on how much harm this pandemic is doing (aside from direct sickness and death)?

Only for Bali and some other small parts of Indonesia international tourism a a large economical factor. For the country it is less than 4% (if I remember correctly). Bali has less than 4.5 million people with only a part of depending depending on tourism (already before the pandemic). Indonesia in total 277 million people.

 

[Illini_Fan]

This is specific to Bali. As reported by Reuters around 14:30 CDT today: bold added by me.

"...Tourist spots in most parts of the island will now accept visitors, maritime and investment minister Luhut Panjaitan told a virtual conference, as long as they adhere to strict protocols, such as proving their vaccination status on a government-verified phone app...International visitors, however, must undergo an eight-day quarantine and take three PCR tests before they enter the island."