I think that number may be correct, but it does not reflect 10 million people. I have 4 of those 10 million, and I'm NAUI...in addition, not everyone is still alive since they started...but walter is most likely correct.
Is is getting even harder now. It is now quite hard to look at the number of individual "names" on PADI certificates.
Many years ago, when you finished a PADI course the instructor gave you the PIC to fill out. When I did this, I was able to make sure that all were in the same name. All my Certs filled out like this can be found together on the PADI online system.
Nowerdays, most instructors fill out the PICs online with some form of your name that they remember after a hard days diving. As a result I now have PADI certifications some with my middle initial, some with my complete first name (others with the short form), and a complete mix of the two.
When I needed to get my deep speciality card replaced I couldn't find the correct mix of spelling and middle name to order the new card online, although PADI europe were able to sort it out over the phone relatively quickly.
Another hurdle to finding the absolute number of divers out there.
Jon