How important is armchair incident analysis?

[tedtim]

I actually disagree pretty completely. If you've got bad facts then accident analysis is useless to discover what actually happened (and also useless for finding blame).

Bad facts are not facts at all, they are speculation. If you have a fact, it is not in dispute. The challenge is gleaning the facts from the speculation.

For example, a diver is found at the bottom of a dive site with no air in their tank. Fact - no air in the tank. Speculation - OOA.

Accident analysis should not be used to assign blame, at least not in this context. There are other forms of investigation for that and they deal with the legal aspects.

 

[The Chairman]

[rant]Real accident analysis is an AWESOME tool, but it rarely takes place: especially on message board.

No, many clamor for it when they are merely cyber-rubber necking! They feel they have a RIGHT to know about what happened and get all the dirty laundry aired out.

However, sometimes the victim is still living. So we take into account how certain posts might affect them IF they return to us.

Sometimes the family is still grieving. We will GLADLY take that into account as well. The imagained benefits of dragging a diver through the cyber mud clearly mean squat in the face of real hurt put on the survivors by the words of some arrogant fool pontificating about how reckless the victim was.

So, is it a double standard? It's easy to point fingers and make accusations JUST to get your way. I don't really care. There are plenty of discussions that use "what ifs" as well as incidents that have actual facts to them for YEARS of reading. We will continue to try and protect the living as much as we are able. [/rant]

 

[lamont]

[rant]Real accident analysis is an AWESOME tool, but it rarely takes place: especially on message board.

No, many clamor for it when they are merely cyber-rubber necking! They feel they have a RIGHT to know about what happened and get all the dirty laundry aired out.

However, sometimes the victim is still living. So we take into account how certain posts might affect them IF they return to us.

If I'm ever in that kind of situation and I come back, I'll know exactly where I stand with certain people, then. That'd be fine by me. In fact, I could probably make a good guess at exactly which idiots would attack me if I was involved in a serious incident.

And sometimes people who are concerned just want to talk it over. There's nothing malicious, there's no rubbernecking, there's an entirely human reaction to want to talk it over.

Sometimes the family is still grieving. We will GLADLY take that into account as well. The imagained benefits of dragging a diver through the cyber mud clearly mean squat in the face of real hurt put on the survivors by the words of some arrogant fool pontificating about how reckless the victim was.

So, is it a double standard? It's easy to point fingers and make accusations JUST to get your way. I don't really care. There are plenty of discussions that use "what ifs" as well as incidents that have actual facts to them for YEARS of reading. We will continue to try and protect the living as much as we are able. [/rant]

As long as you purely equate speculation with "pointing fingers", "making accusations" and "rubbernecking" and don't allow any other motives or effects, then what you write makes perfect sense.

 

[Rick Murchison]

1) Can you list anything you have changed in your diving as a result of armchair incident analysis?

I changed my definition of proper weighting for my OW students from "Neutral at 15' with an empty BC and 500 psi" which was (and may still be today) NAUI's published definition to "Neutral at the surface with an empty BC and 500 psi."

2) Have you ever helped clarify, resolve or bring about any good by armchair analysis?

I sure hope so. Folks have told me they've changed a few things over the years for the better based on stuff I've provided...

3) If the answer to both 1 and 2 are no, isn't this form of armchair analysis the cyber equivalent of freeway rubbernecking?

Well, they ain't, and so it ain't.
Rick

 

[PerroneFord]

Rick, that "how long for tanks to mix over a manifold" experiment happened very shortly before my move to doubles. Perfect timing for me.

 

[cerich]

a wise man/woman learns from his/her mistakes
a stupid man/woman never learn from his/her mistakes
a genious learns from the mistakes of others

pick which ya wanna be......

 

[H2Andy]

in order to learn from the mistakes of others, you need to know what the mistake
was ... no?

and that requires accurate information, no?

 

[Walter]

Sure, but those mistakes are rarely revealed. For example, if lots of very experienced folks are dying diving rebreathers, I'd like to know if one of them put a screw in the mouthpiece to hold it open. Otherwise, I might get the wrong impression as to exactly how dangerous they are. Are they so dangerous no one should be diving them or are people making mistakes that are easily avoided?

The same concept applies to open circuit. The facts should be released as soon as possible.

 

[Spectre]

in order to learn from the mistakes of others, you need to know what the mistake
was ... no?

If that is the intent... yes. However, if you take the attitude that I believe in; using an accident to review -your- diving and mistakes you -may- have made in the past and/or mistakes you could make in the future, and recognize them as hazardous, or even recognize them at all.

 

[Cacia]

Sure, but those mistakes are rarely revealed. For example, if lots of very experienced folks are dying diving rebreathers, I'd like to know if one of them put a screw in the mouthpiece to hold it open. Otherwise, I might get the wrong impression as to exactly how dangerous they are. Are they so dangerous no one should be diving them or are people making mistakes that are easily avoided?

The same concept applies to open circuit. The facts should be released as soon as possible.

Yes, I think we usually hear the truth. Just not here, which is fine and maybe appropriate.

Yes, I think it serves a purpose.

Yes, it changes the way I do things to realize the best amongst us get complacent and don't always do what "proper training dictates". The truth is people cannot handle that so it becomes taboo to discuss, which is more frightening to me than any accident. Our fear of the truth and how that plays. The truth is usually threatening, because it will most likely be what gets us too. I am not talking about anybody in particular...so please don't start blasting me.

I usually find the truth in the street, not the official reports, with the exception of autopsy reports. The dive community is so small that other divers and witnesses always talk about what happened, etc. The question becomes, do you do it publicly or privately? Privately I think it all comes out.