How great is the risk (in your perception)?

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By 1.5x-2x the gas to get out you really mean 2x, right? Start at 300 ft3, turn at 200 ft3, that's 2x to get out and diving to thirds.

Yeah, I know, semantics. :)

usually 1.5x the gas required to kick out if we have a spare scooter with us, 2x obviously when kicking. Logic there being that we should be able to exit at minimum 2x as fast *calculations use 50fpm for kick speed out since I'm slow, and 100fpm for DPV out*. I then put the 50% back in just in case so I get a bit of a benefit from the DPV on the exit gas carried, but if for whatever it gets super silty *had a team chasing us into HITW and it was true brown out for about 200ft and it took a good while to get through there*, you still have some extra buffer.
This is strictly solo gas planning, there is 0 plan to ever share gas with any of my dive buddies so it has to be a bit more conservative than planning with any sort of buddy gas sharing. The extra third of contingency gas for us is so we can make a solo exit with no issue and we will have at least one team buddy bottle in there to make that exit a bit less stressful if we are carrying any stages.

I also dive bar spg's so my fills are usually between 240-250bar for steel, and 200bar for aluminum. I deduct at least 20bar/300psi from those fills as a regulator function buffer, and then run whatever division I'm going to be doing. In keeping with even integers on the SPG, that most always puts me at 70bar/1000psi third on steel, and 60bar/850ishpsi third on aluminum. Quite a bit more conservative than 1200/1000 thirds
 
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usually 1.5x the gas required to kick out if we have a spare scooter with us, 2x obviously when kicking

So you blow thirds if you have a spare scooter but follow thirds if you don't?

You start with 3000 psi, you turn at 2000 psi. How much gas do you have when you turn (2x what you used getting in is 2x to get out).
 
So you blow thirds if you have a spare scooter but follow thirds if you don't?

You start with 3000 psi, you turn at 2000 psi. How much gas do you have when you turn (2x what you used getting in is 2x to get out).

All this obviously assumes no siphons, and are in caves that aren't like Cathedral where gas planning gets adjusted based on conditions, no different than the rule of thirds not being applicable in those kinds of caves.

1.5x the gas required to kick out when you are going in on a scooter ends up somewhere around sixths for the most part with my scooter because it is a UV26 and is slow.
Assume a 150fpm entry, starting at 3000psi, and a 20 minute penetration for shits and giggles, and you turn at 2500psi. 25psi/min entry. 3x the required exit time puts you at a 60min exit, so 25*60=1500psi. 2500/1500=1.6x the gas to get out kicking.

If you are going in on a faster scooter, you have to make that more conservative on your entry, which you're well aware since you have a go-fast DPV.

I don't know anyone who turns at thirds when on a DPV with a planned kick exit. Practically speaking, if you have a spare DPV, you can cut your exit gas requirements since a silt out is about the only thing that will cause you to not be able to go out at some sort of speed. For this, I plan 100fpm dpv exit speed at a 2x gas safety factor, which happens to equate to 1x the kick out gas requirement. There is a minimum of 300psi buffer in there because I deduct that from all of my tanks before running calculations. I'm OK with this because the odds of you not being able to dpv out at all for the entire length of the cave so long as we are talking about the caves above and not special circumstance caves.

I wrote a spreadsheet that has this math calculated out for me so I can enter some variables that are applicable to the cave. Planned depth, how long I plan on being on the DPV, how much time I plan to kick around at the end, my planned speeds going in and out, SAC rates going in and out since I acknowledge they are usually different, and then whatever safety factor I want to apply. Caves like JB, Ginnie, etc. I'm OK going at 1.5. Caves like HITW will get bumped up to 1.7-2.0 depending on where we are going because it is no flow, with high risk of getting silted out if another team comes in behind us or we mess up on the way in.
You then input what backgas tanks you're carrying and it will also spit back out the minimum number of stage bottles you have to bring with you which is quite convenient.
This tool is great when planning dives with decent maps when you haven't been able to dive them before and while it has to make quite a few assumptions, it has yet to play out less conservative than real world validation because the numbers are all padded pretty heavily.
I personally find diving stages to 1/2+2 and reserving backgas to be significantly easier than diving stages to thirds, so the spreadsheet is set up to factor that in. Obviously adjustable to whatever you want based on how the formulas are set up.
The next tab over is for CCR bailout planning which is identical other than removing the entry gas requirements. The top left is DPV penetration, and then kick penetration since the b/o requirements for those two legs will be different.

I don't use straight cut rules because it will get you offed, but after doing the math, some generalizations do start to become apparent, one of which is sixths being OK to dive to when diving with slow scooters.

DPV formula sheet.JPG
 
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Great inputs from you guys,!

Thanks!!
 
OK, lets bring this back to a discussion. I will not say that I will never use TBO, however I will say that I believe that it is a flawed approach. More important is why it is a flawed approach, IMHO. The main sticking point is dependency on others inside and outside the team. What I mean by this is that when SHF, everyone reacts differently and everyone of us will react differently on different days. TBO relies on others in the team to act and react properly. I have been on far too many dives where people, including myself, didn't react well to a situation.

Those that say that they always react calmly and correctly simply haven't been in enough SHF situations. We all have the capacity to react poorly depending on how events line up. Most people freeze, which usually is OK because there will be the few that will act with solid direction to resolve, they tend to over ride the ones that freeze. Others will panic or react poorly which negatively impacts resolving the problem. In the water many times people simply don't have enough perception to realize there is a problem. I have seen normally solid divers have a bad day which results in poor actions or reactions.

Relying on others when things go bad sets up too many constraints, IMHO again, that can lead to a problem not being resolved. I also don't believe in support divers carrying my gas on deep dives, however I do have them take unneeded cylinders once I'm through with them. The same as I learned the hard way to carry two sources of BO on recreational dives. It can work however there are enough possible failure points I prefer to use other options.

I was distracted by a phone call when I started typing this. Once I finished typing and posted a number of other good posts followed.
 
it's just bad practice and there's no need to even consider it on MOST dives. needlessly risky for nearly no benefit.
and some old timers doing it for years without incident doesn't blow my skirt up. many of these 'pioneers of cave diving' are doing PLENTY of unsafe things and everyone knows it.
 
I think I will bow out of this discussion. Its moved into caves, I have neither the knowledge, training or experience to contribute to such a discussion. My experience is only Open Water and Wreck penetration.
well team bailout is even sillier in the ocean so i think that's why most people are discussing it in the context of a cave dive where the bailout volume is at least large enough to start to consider splitting it up
 
Can someone define team bailout?

Individual bailout is you carrying everything that you need to get you out of wherever you are at provided you have a total CCR failure. Basically treat gas planning as if you were solo.
Team bailout is anything less than that. It may be enough gas to get 1 diver out from a catastrophic loop failure, or anything in between that and total self sufficient gas planning. In a team of 2, it is usually enough to get 1.5x divers out, and in a team of more than 2, it is enough to get 2 divers out.

A thought experiment concerning “team bailout” when diving CCR in a cave…
Setting Limits for cave diving: How much bailout gas should a CCR cave diver carry… and where?
Bailout Strategies
Rebreather Bailout Gas Management | IntoThePlanet
 
https://www.shearwater.com/products/peregrine/

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