HELP! Forecast interpretation!?!

[sarita75]

SAT
NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...BECOMING W 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
EVENING. WIND WAVES 2 TO 5 FT. NW SWELL 6 TO 8 FT.

SUN
S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. WIND WAVES 4 TO 7 FT. NW SWELL 7 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.

Can anyone interpret this in "should she go diving" language? If so, which day? Looking at diving Breakwater or Lovers ... Nothing taxing, just a good old dive. Thanks!

 

[dannobee]

Weather forecast is iffy. And if you're planning to dive Breakwater, the red tide is still in full bloom.

Last Sunday it was even in the harbor at K-dock and didn't let up until we were way past Point Pinos.

The Carmel side was beautiful though.

 

[Doc Intrepid]

Sarita,

Based only on those forcast figures, Saturday would be marginal for me, Sunday I would thumb the dives. Some of it depends on how athletic you are.

(Also, I'm on the east coast, so charters here are often between 40 and 70 miles offshore. It may be different where you are located. I'm also talking about charter boat operations, not shore diving - although 5' waves are 5' waves, offshore or onshore...)

When waves are "2 to 4", this represents acceptable conditions for a drop off the back of a charter boat AFAIC.

When waves are "3 to 5", this is getting marginal (again, for me personally given my environment).

Two basic reasons:
1. Getting back on the ladder when the stern is rising and plunging down 5' or more can be dangerous; getting whacked by anything sharp on the underside of the boat can be fatal. Getting whacked by the ladder itself can ruin your entire day.

2. Weather is a finicky thing 30-70 miles offshore, and it can get worse real quick. You don't want to do the drop when waves are "3 to 5" and surface after your dive to find them "4 to 7".

Basically after you do enough charters you'll find your own comfort limit. Don't do the drop beyond it. Thats part of learning when to thumb the dive.

Getting back into a heaving boat when the stern is leaping and plunging, the wind is high, currents are running, the captain is nervous, and it will be a long run in, is not a position you want to find yourself in!

Hope this helps,

Doc

 

[Gombessa]

Those were great clarifications Doc. For Monterey CA, I think we're definitely talking shore dives. No getting whacked by the boat, but an undignified and possibly comical beach crawl exit may be in the cards

 

[sarita75]

Yes, thanks all. I would be shore diving and have done some pretty bad rough surf exits. It is more the entries that worry me sometimes. Nothing like trying to get the fins on in the rougher waters.

Danno -thanks for the information on the redtide. I had thought that it had pretty much cleared out recently, but I guess not, based upon what you've said. Perhaps I need to just be content with the weekend at home - although I really had hoped to get in my 50th dive before 1/1. Phooey!

 

[dannobee]

Thanks Doc, but she was talking about doing a shore dive in Monterey. 30-70 miles out over here can put you in 12,000 FSW.

My personal "limit" is a little higher than Chuck's. I'll dive if it goes up to 10 ft (NW), assuming the wind isn't over 15 kts and the interval isn't shorter than 10 seconds or so.

If you're going to do it this weekend, go for the Carmel side (Stillwater, Carmel River, Monastery), but only if you look at it first to see if it's diveable.

Often their forecast improves as the date approaches, so keep an eye on that.

 

[sarita75]

Thanks again Danno. I really would love to go diving, but after the liveaboard last week, my arms are pretty wrecked. Haulin' gear is no kind of fun on weaker upper arms. I think I will just keep an eye on it and if it does get better, than I'll make the journey; otherwise I will stay home, clean up the house and do some upper-body strengthening exercises down at the gym.

 

[mikeguerrero]

Hey Sarita75,

My dive buddy and I are going this Sunday to either BW or Lovers... The last time we dove together was almost one month ago and we are very eager to go this weekend...

Because he works on Saturdays we always choose Sunday... We hope to find a break with the red tide and get some decent diving like we did when we found lovers to be irresitable on one particular weekend we dove...

We are also going to do our very first boat trip the following weekend with our OW dive instructor. She mentioned the Hopper or the Escapade...

I will be keeping my eye on the diving conditions just like you....

Mike G

 

[wdunne311]

This post gives me good fodder for deciding where we're doing the makeup dives for my rescue course. Sunday looks interesting too... I've got a drysuit course then.

 

[Chuck Tribolet]

Sarita: What's that forecast for? It doesn't look anything like the Monterey forecasts for the last
few days. And you need to read ba_diving -- the red tide was definitely out in force last
weekend.

Doc: the big difference here is that we have some places with protection. So even though it may be
8' offshore, it will be a good bit smaller in the protected places. But your point about finding our
own comfort level is important -- that's why I always post the 3 a.m. forecast in my trip reports
on ba_diving. Comfort levels will vary from diver to diver. experience, photography, and how flexible
your schedule is (and I'm sure some more things) affect you threshold.

Gombessa: Speak for youself about beach dives. I do 130 dives a year in Monterey, and typically
four are from the beach. The rest are boat dives. All things considered, I'd rather get on the
boat in 100' of water off the beach than crawl out on that beach.

All: Interval is important. A good general rule is that if the height in feet is greater than or equal
to the interval in seconds, it's REALLY SCARY. By the time the interval is 1.5x the height, it's
not bad.