Future aka New Normal

[DownUnderwater Dan]

Appreciate your input, but I was asking the poster I quoted.

My apologies for butting in

 

[tursiops]

My apologies for butting in

No problem, but I wanted to hear from the poster because of the context of her comment.

 

[Indah]

New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says

The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said
“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,”
“It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different.”
“The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,”
“We’ve got to get back to being a normal country,” he said. “Someone has to take responsibility for terrorizing the country.”

If Covid-19 is possibly already weakening in a short period of time to just the strength of a common cold, perhaps a vaccine will not be of significance in the future

And most other scientist have no clue why he thinks that. Please look at the numbers in Brazil, India, Mexico.

 

[Indah]

I think several millions is a very far stretch. The death tolls are wildly disproportionate when comparing deaths from different countries. Misinformation is causing the most damage to everyone's lives now

But yes, covid-19 like all other coronaviruses will become mild like a common cold

I wish I could agree with you. But the data tell some else. Please look at the excess mortality in countries such as the Netherlands and Belgium. One example; Netherlands 06 - 13 April 2020. 5.000 people died instead of the normal 3.000.

 

[Indah]

The notice was made on Facebook by a resident and fellow diver.

Thank you. I am afraid that this was not a very reliable source. Both North and South Sulawesi see growing numbers in both infections and deaths. About 2 - 3 % daily. Indeed the Indonesian government is forced by the economical situation in the country to lift some restrictions. But not because the numbers go down. Wish it was true. I live with my family in North Sulawesi.

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

Misinformation has been due mostly to the lack of reliable data, which start appearing just now, showing the real under-reporting rate both for asymptomatics and for deaths.
see here from some data relative to the most affected provinces of North Italy:
COVID-19 in Italy: An analysis of death registry data | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal
The mortality ratio, before the lockdown measured managed to slow down the virus spreading, raised to more than three times the normal mortality averaged over the 5 previous years:
View attachment 589840
Without the lockdown the curve had continued to increase much further, in Bergamo (where lockdown was delayed a couple of weeks) it reached a local maximum of 8 times the normal mortality rate, and with no control it is not difficult to predict that it could have easily reached a factor of 10.
Every year in Italy we have more or less 650.000 deaths, approximately 54.000 per month.
If Covid-19 has been left running without control for two months and affected the whole Italy, the number of deaths could have been 540.000/month, hence 1 million deaths in 2 months. This just for Italy...
Of course this is a worst case scenario, and luckily, thanks to the severe lock down, now we have "just" 33.000 deaths (officially, which means 60.000 really, as the article cited shows clearly that we are under-reporting a lot of deaths)...
Already too much, in my opinion, and well enough for justifying the severe lockdown we had suffered.

Overwhelming elderly, vulnerable and already ill people causing them great stress & anxiety, isolating them in their homes, away from physical contact from their families, terrorising them 24/7 with news stories of the "killer virus", "zombie apocalypse", space suits & gas masks... in my opinion had a negative effect on their health, especially in elderly people with heart conditions, were probably overwhelmed & scared to death when they got coronavirus, & probably lost fighting spirit thinking they had no hope to survive

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

I wish I could agree with you. But the data tell some else. Please look at the excess mortality in countries such as the Netherlands and Belgium. One example; Netherlands 06 - 13 April 2020. 5.000 people died instead of the normal 3.000.

I understand. But if they can release official death tolls to the public that were factually grossely inflated, riddled with errors... what's to say that their excess mortality toll isn't misleading and inaccurate as their other publicly released statistics?

The maths just doesn't add up

 

[Indah]

I understand. But if they can release official death tolls to the public that were factually grossely inflated, riddled with errors... what's to say that their excess mortality toll isn't misleading and inaccurate as their other publicly released statistics?

The maths just doesn't add up

I do not think that the published excess mortality numbers in the Netherlands were inflated at all. And, why would they do that anyway?

 

[DownUnderwater Dan]

I do not think that the published excess mortality numbers in the Netherlands were inflated at all. And, why would they do that anyway?

You mentioned Belgium, and Belgium have gone on the record as saying they have inflated their covid-19 death toll by 100%.

...Professor Steven Van Gucht.The virologist and public face of Brussels' scientific response to the crisis says Belgium's "honest" method of counting COVID-19 victims means the country's death rate should be divided by two for a more accurate comparison with most other nations.

Picking and choosing which OFFICIAL death tolls are correct is beyond comprehension. All these false statistics will go down in history as facts

 

[Angelo Farina]

Do'nt know where you got your information that Germany performed smaller testing than Italy.
From end of march, Germany carried out 70,000 tests per day a week later they were conducting 115.000 tests per day (week of April 4th, peak of the virus), which means a ratio from 0,9 to 1,4 per 1000 capita, more than any country and more than twice than Italy at the same time while it was the peak of the virus.
Same goes for Austria, same for Portugal, etc... where fatality rate is not up to what you mention, all these countries having tested thoroughly.
Here in France there's kind of consensus coming from the medical grounds that established the immediate fatality rate around 0,8%.

I posted the link to the web site providing the official number of test done in every country...
Here the chart you get from that web site:

So Italy is around 1 test every 1000 people each day, and Germany is around 0.7. US is ramping up quickly, and is now above 1.6.
But Germany was very fast increasing the umber of daily tests at beginning of March, we were increasing it more slowly.
The web site cited provides an interactive chart, you can choose the countries to compare.
Just go there and check yourself. Here the link: Daily COVID-19 tests per thousand people