Question:
By removing this flange, did the ICT and the diving company know what they were doing and what the consequences would be?
Answer:
Apparently not, because even a few hours later the ICT was still asking the dive company to draw up a new rescue dive plan.
Question:
Was the ICT correct by saying that a second delta P could still occur if the plug was not fully deflated?
Answer:
No
Here, in this incident, the delta P was related to the deflation of the obturator and occurred as soon as the pressure inside it became insufficient to hold it in place. Today we know that the plug open/close valve was torn off. This could have happened when the diver opened the said valve with his spanner or more likely because the valve got caught in the retaining chain at the start of the plug movement inside the riser.
In any case, in the real situation, it can be said that, as it moved through the pipeline, the plug quickly and completely emptied of its air due to the increasing pressure exerted downstream of it.
This means that at the end of the event which, let us remember, lasted about forty seconds, this plug returned to its original shape, that is to say that of a cylinder of about 15 '' of diameter.
Obviously, at the time of the incident, no one knew the exact position of the open/close valve and therefore one could also imagine (although this is more than unlikely) that the diver just had time to close it when he realized that something was wrong.
This means that in this case, the plug would then have moved in the pipe without the air being able to escape. Could this have resulted in blocking it again? The answer is off course NO because even if the bag was still practically inflated when it started to slip, it would then have been subjected to a higher pressure (2.5 bars) than it had at the start (1.45 bars) and this would have resulted in a strong compression and deformation of its outer envelope and thus a reduction of its volume and its initial diameter. This means that in both cases (open valve or closed valve) the water could easily have circulated between the obturator and the wall of the pipe and therefore could not generate another delta P. Why the ICT (which also included a dive expert) has not come to the same conclusion remains a mystery, but it has resulted in many hours being lost in unnecessary dithering.
But let’s assume now that ICT has not banned rescue dives. Would that have changed the course of events?
Unfortunately, until 19h00 the potential rescue divers didn’t have the adequate commercial diving equipment.
We saw that after the hookah dive which did not yield anything, a second rescue dive, planned to send a scuba diver inside the pipeline with a diving bottle (12 l) equipped with 2 regulators (it is not said, but we can suppose the diver had also planned to take another diving bottle with him).
Under such stressful circumstances and due to the difficult progression in the pipeline (feet first travel / portion of pipeline partly without water / wall full of slippery crude oil), the rescue diver would have consumed much more air than in a normal situation which means that with its 2400 litres of air he would have had an autonomy of about 20 minutes, and that during this period of time he should have, if it had found someone, correctly tie the retrieval rope, then give (or place) a diving mask on the head and finally secure a scuba tank properly on his back (or on his stomach depending on the injuries) while making sure it would stay in position during the ascent of the diver in riser, and to finish, he had to guide and return to the riser with the diver.
Knowing these parameters, we can say that with a scuba equipment, this rescue would have been very RISKY if the injured diver was found more than +/- 45 m (150 ft.) from the elbow and the risk would have been even higher, as nothing had been planned with the assistants on the dive time and the maximum penetration length in the pipeline.
As consequence, it can be safely said that it was a VERY good thing to have aborted this dive.
Subsequently, another dive could have been made around 19h00 with this time a 300-foot umbilical. This length would have allowed a penetration of approximately 200 feet after the elbow and would likely have been sufficient to reach the diver which was following Christopher (provided the diver remained in place). The problem here is that once the diver was brought back into the chamber, he should have, after his long dive (> 255 min) at 55 ft. stay there for very long air decompression stop (313–432 minutes) or (83-106) if O² was available, with the high possibility to face a severe decompression accident as this stop would have been made at a depth less than the depth of the table.
With the 55 feet table the maximum exposure time is 360 min (6 hours), and this duration was reached at 20h45. This means that from that time, the rescue of the divers would then have become more and more problematic because there was then no longer a decompression table available for such a dive time and therefore the risk of generating a severe or even more serious type 2 accident would have been inevitable.
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